I still think Oscar De La Hoya can punch harder than Manny Pacquiao. But my money is on Manny to land more punches and upset Oscar in their welterweight megafight Saturday in Las Vegas.
My pick is not consistent with my long-held belief that a fighter should compete at the lowest weight possible, nor my philosophy of backing the man with a good jab and a reach advantage.
In fact, the pick is not consistent with what I wrote in September, when I said De La Hoya would look like a monster up next to Pacquiao, who is moving up 17 pounds above his recent perch atop the junior lightweights at 130. De La Hoya turned pro at 130 but always seemed destined for welterweight. Now I?m saying size won?t matter.
What swayed me, aside from all the new friends I?ve made in the Philippines building up this fight?
First, I saw Pacquiao in the flesh three weeks ago and was convinced the higher weight is a help, not a hindrance. He looked the same as usual: trim and quick.
Second, I finally realized the analogous fight in boxing history was the Aaron Pryor-Alexis Arguello junior welterweight fight in 1982. Pryor, 5-foot-6? like Pacquiao, overwhelmed Arguello, 5-10, in a manner Pacquiao is well-equipped to duplicate against De La Hoya. (It turns out I?m not the first to notice the Pacquiao-Pryor parallels, though Pryor, unlike Pacquiao, fought right-handed and was black.) Anyway, it isn?t so difficult to picture Pacquiao standing up to De La Hoya and even mauling him.
Third, who am I to argue with trainer Freddie Roach about the most crucial element in this fight, whether De La Hoya?s right hand is effective. Against a southpaw, his left jab and left hook may be less effective than usual, but the right should be easier to land. De La Hoya has been landing bigger shots with the right in recent years than he used to, but Roach says De La Hoya?s right is still substandard. And Roach indeed says he has a plan to neutralize Oscar?s jab.
Pacquiao will win the first round. De La Hoya will try to feel him out, and Pacquiao will prove his quickness can?t always be parried. Pacquiao will be winning the second round in that manner when suddenly a lead right from De La Hoya puts Pacquiao on the canvas. He?s up quickly, but De La Hoya can be effective against anyone when he whales away, and Oscar wins a two-point round. And wins another one in the third, decking Manny with a counter right while Manny lands a solid left. This time Manny is really hurt and labors to last the round.
What happens after that is the key to the fight. One commenter on my blog said that if Manny could last into the fifth round, he would win the fight. I believe that?s what will happen. Pacquiao will take control of the fight late in the fourth round and will look like his usual self the second half of the fight, much too busy for De La Hoya. Maybe Oscar will win one late round, but the scorecard will read Pacquiao 115, De La Hoya 111.
BEST AND WORST: Obviously, De La Hoya-Pacquiao is the best matchup of December, although the Wladimir Klitschko-Hasim Rahman heavyweight bout Dec. 13 has potential because Rahman has so much talent to go with his will to lose. The worst: James Toney is still campaigning as a heavyweight, even though he still should drop down 40 or 50 pounds to cruiserweight, and will meet one Tony Thompson, also Dec. 13. The worst November matchup, as I predicted, was the Arthur Abraham-Raul Marquez middleweight mismatch, with Marquez too far past his prime. There were lots of one-sided high-profile fights including Joe Calzaghe-Roy Jones Jr., and Ricky Hatton-Paulie Malignanni. The best bout of November was a surprise Nov. 29, an undercard match between up-and-coming heavyweight Chris Arriola and less-heralded Travis Walker, a well-built 231-pounder who pounded Arriola in the first round and decked him in the second. Arriola, at a porky 254 pounds, then found the range, knocking Walker down twice in the second and then knocking him out early in the third. Not quite Foreman-Lyle, but plenty exciting. We?ll talk much more about the heavyweights next week.
