Pittsburgh, PA- Unlike this site?s creator Pedro Fernandez, boxing writers often forego predictions in lieu of regurgitating what we saw throughout the week. We learned this week, for example, that Chris Arreola still enjoys devouring food almost as much as opponents and that Paul Williams lived up to his nickname by punishing the game but overmatched Verno Phillips. At the risk of being chastised, if not ridiculed, for erring on calling this Saturday night?s winner, I offer my vision of the ?Dream Match? between Oscar De La Hoya (39-5, 30 KOs) and Manny Pacquiao (47-3-2, 35 KOs).
PAC, HE DARES TO DREAM
Perhaps I, like others, have focused too much on the Golden Boy?s picking, and picking on, a smaller man (?Oscar-Pac a Fraud,? August 4, 2008), when I should also commend the Pacman on taking a chance by fighting a world class opponent in unknown territory ? i.e., the welterweight (147 lb.) division. Ring Lightweight (135 lb.) champ Juan Manuel Marquez (49-4-1, 36 KOs) deserves another shot at Pacquiao, considering the controversial results of their first two scintillating fights. However, accusing the Filipino of avoiding Marquez with a challenge to Oscar is inaccurate if not misleading, since Pacquiao could have sought much easier prey. Simply put, while a win for De La Hoya gains for him even more publicity, a victory for Pacquiao elevates him to yet another plateau.
DON?T LET THE EARLY ROUNDS FOOL YOU
Pacquiao essentially got by with a 1-2 jab and straight left combination, along with speed, power and toughness, until he faced the elite, specifically Marquez and Erik Morales (48-6, 34 KOs). Though he has added more punches, including a right hook, to his repertoire, don?t expect too many of those on Saturday, since they will invite Oscar?s left hook, still one of the game?s best. Remembering that De La Hoya is a natural lefty, expect Pacquiao to move to his left early and fire bunches of straight or looping lefts. His speed will cause the bigger man early problems, and he will pile up the majority of the early rounds.
THE GOLDEN BOY NEEDS TO INVEST
De La Hoya can and will disrupt Pac?s momentum with his effective jab and by catching the smaller man?s left hands. Once adjusted to Pacquiao?s speed, and as Pac slows ever so slightly due to carrying the extra weight, the tide will turn. De La Hoya will begin to catch him, and a multitude of punches to the head and the body will take their toll. Unlike Steve Forbes, who was content to lose a wide decision, Pacquiao will continue to fiercely engage, too often while squaring up against his opponent, who is (love him or hate him) a terrific boxer.
THE RESULT REVEALED
Carrying the hopes of a nation and the pride of a warrior, the Pacman will never surrender, but by the tenth round he will absorb great punishment. Sensing (maybe seeing) blood, one of the sport?s best finishers will overwhelm Pac in that round, forcing referee Tony Weeks to call a halt for a 10th round TKO. I admit, though, I could be wrong ? it might get stopped in the 11th.
