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Insider Notebook: The Risks, Rewards of Oscar vs. Manny

Manny Pacquiao is more popular than Floyd Mayweather Jr. was before he fought Oscar De La Hoya in May 2007, promoters Richard Schaefer and Bob Arum said this week. That’s why they believe that Pacquiao-De La Hoya on Dec. 6 in Las Vegas has a good chance of breaking the record of 2.4 million pay-per-view buys set by De La Hoya-Mayweather.

?Mayweather really became a celebrity after the (HBO) 24/7 show with Oscar and then with the Ricky Hatton fight (seven months later),? said Schaefer, CEO of De La Hoya’s Golden Boy Promotions. ?Mayweather really used those platforms very wisely. He is a very clever guy. He really became the star he is today, who really transcends the sport and is known in general households. But that is really not the way it was before he fought Oscar.?

The numbers bear that out. Prior to fighting De La Hoya, Mayweather had sold 325,000 pay-per-view buys for his fight with Carlos Baldomir, 365,000 for his bout with Arturo Gatti and a high of 375,000 for his riot-marred fight with Zab Judah.

Pacquiao’s top three pay-per-view fights have been his third fight with Erik Morales (350,000), his second fight with Morales (360,000) and his second fight with Juan Manuel Marquez (400,000). That’s 1,110,000 for Pacquiao and 1,065,000 for Mayweather heading into their respective fights with De La Hoya.

Mayweather, with all the trash-talking he doled out to De La Hoya, inspired interest from two groups of people during the promotion for his fight with De La Hoya. There were those who loved him and those who hated him.

With De La Hoya-Pacquiao, in De La Hoya you have the biggest pay-per-view attraction in history. Then there is Pacquiao, who is arguably the second most popular fighter in the world behind De La Hoya. Pacquiao’s Filipino fan base might is as passionate as they come.

There are also the haters out there who don’t like this fight because of the size differential. And haters will probably buy this fight just so they can say, ?Told you so,? if Pacquiao gets knocked cold.

?You have people who think this is the ultimate matchup, people who are very passionate about it ? you see it in the blogs,? Schaefer said. ?You have this other group who is totally against the fight. Both groups are very passionate.

?You throw into the mix the popularity of Oscar with the Latinos and the U.S. market in general, and then you throw in Manny Pacquiao with his legion of Filipino fans; Filipinos are the second-largest immigrant group in the U.S. There are millions and millions of Filipinos in the U.S. I have to tell you, I like our chances of breaking the record.?

Schaefer said he knows the idea of this fight surpassing 2.4 million buys is going to be met with skepticism, but he had a poignant thought about that as well. He said that prior to De La Hoya-Mayweather, he predicted it had a shot to set a pay-per-view record, which it did by some 400,000 buys.

?I dared to say we were going to break the record, but nobody believed me,? Schaefer said. ?They said it was impossible for a non-heavyweight fight, that I was just talking like a promoter. We did it. And we didn’t just break it by a little. If you believe in it and promote it right, I really do believe this has a chance to break the record.?

Arum, who promotes Pacquiao, is not about to shoot down anything Schaefer says in this regard. It would be bad for business. But, promoter’s rhetoric aside, Arum made equally good sense when discussing the possibilities Wednesday during a telephone conversation.

?I think it’s very realistic,? Arum said. ?Pacquiao is a more proven commodity than Mayweather was at the time that fight (with De La Hoya) was made. I think people are fascinated by Pacquiao. I think we have a real shot to beat that number. It’s a humongous number, but we have a shot to beat it.?

Roach will have no regrets

Freddie Roach, Pacquiao’s trainer, seemingly played an unusually large role in making this fight happen. First he called out De La Hoya by taking some rather unsavory verbal shots at him. Then, after negotiations temporarily broke down, Roach told Pacquiao that he should take the original 70-30 split (in De La Hoya’s favor) of the worldwide revenue offered by De La Hoya and Golden Boy.

Although promoters are not yet divulging the percentage ultimately agreed upon, Roach put it in Pacquiao’s head that he should do everything he can to not turn down this fight. Even at 30 percent, Pacquiao stood to make as much as three times more than his biggest payday, which is $5 million.

But what if De La Hoya beats the daylights out of Pacquiao and knocks him out in vicious fashion? Roach was asked Tuesday if he then might be sorry, kind of in that, ?Be careful what you wish for? sense. A brutal knockout loss often can damage a fighter’s psyche, Roach was reminded. And, at 29, Pacquiao would seem to have several good years left. Roach just scoffed.

?I guess I can see Oscar … with that left hook, he’s a dangerous guy,? Roach said. ?But then I think, ‘What if Manny jumps on Oscar and blows him out of the water?’ That is always possible. Especially the way Oscar has fought in his last two fights.?

De La Hoya could have defeated Mayweather in their fight, but he stopped throwing his jab down the stretch and that cost him dearly in the split-decision loss. De La Hoya then won a unanimous decision last May over Steve Forbes, who once held a 130-pound title and fought De La Hoya at 150 pounds. Roach said the fight against Forbes, who landed his share of punches, was a telling factor in him going after the 35-year-old De La Hoya for this fight with Pacquiao.

?A younger Oscar, I wouldn’t even have thought about him,? Roach said. ?But Oscar is not the same guy he was in his day. Time is something we can’t get away from. He is not the same fighter. The Steve Forbes fight meant a lot to me in taking this fight. He was a 130-pounder who moved up and did well against Oscar. And if he could punch a little, he might have done better.?

It should be noted that when Forbes fought De La Hoya, he had not fought at 130 pounds for nearly four years. Except for two fights at junior welterweight during that time, Forbes had been campaigning as a welterweight.

The point was well-made, however. De La Hoya is not in his prime. But, like Roach said, De La Hoya is lethal if he gets off with his left hook. De La Hoya may not have been able to connect with it against Mayweather, but Pacquiao’s defense has never been confused with Mayweather’s.

Still, Roach said, he will not look back and wish he hadn’t pushed for this fight even if it doesn’t go well. Boxing, he said, is about daring to be great.

?There are always risks and rewards and I feel it is worth the risk and reward,? Roach said. ?I never take a fight I don’t think my fighter can win. If Manny wants to hold me to my offer of him not paying me if he loses because I had a hand in making the fight, that’s fine.?

Furthermore, Roach said, he looks forward to the beginning of training with great anticipation. Pacquiao is scheduled to report to camp at Roach’s Wild Card Gym in Hollywood, Calif., on Oct. 1.

?A lot of people thought we bit off more than we can chew and they want to know if I have any regrets now that the fight is made,? Roach said. ?Do I have any regrets? No. I can’t wait to start getting Manny ready for the fight.?

No 147, no fight?

Roach said that he of course will be looking for tall sparring partners because De La Hoya ? at 5-10 ? ? is at least four inches taller than Pacquiao. That is something Roach knows he has to do in order to give Pacquiao his best chance at winning.

What Roach won’t do is allow De La Hoya to weigh in at anything more than the 147 pounds agreed to in the contract. Yes, Roach knows that there are stiff penalties for every pound De La Hoya is over.

Forget that, Roach said. If De La Hoya comes in at anything over 147, the fight will be off as far as he’s concerned. De La Hoya has not fought at 147 since he stopped Gatti in the fifth round in March 2001, 7 ? years ago.

?If he doesn’t come in at 147, we are probably not going to fight him? Roach said. ?If he comes in at 150, I’m not going to let Manny fight him. I don’t want Oscar to get comfortable. I’m going to make Oscar come in as small as he can.?

What retirement?

Schaefer said he was not surprised when, during last week’s conference call announcing this fight, De La Hoya said that he is now not sure if this will be his last fight. All we had heard the past several months is that De La Hoya was looking for an opponent for his farewell fight.

?He said, ‘Look, let me see how I feel and take it from there,’ ? Schaefer said. ?And he should. I feel when you retire at any profession, this is a very serious decision. Oscar should never retire and then a couple of years later come back. That is where I think most of the damage to the body is going to take place.

?You have to come back and get that old body back in shape. I think he wants to keep his options open and I think that’s what he should do. Besides, I think it would do this fight a total injustice if this fight is (made to be) about Oscar’s retirement rather than Oscar fighting the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world.?

Got that?

Negotiations not difficult

Arum began promoting boxing in 1966, some 42 years ago. It would seem that with the roller coaster ride the De La Hoya-Pacquiao talks took, and with all the money at stake, these might have been some of the more emotionally-charged negotiations in which Arum has taken part.

Not so, Arum said from his offices in Las Vegas.

?Quite the contrary,? he said. ?Schaefer and I both wanted the fight to happen and it was a question of getting our fighters in line. So it wasn’t emotional at all and it wasn’t difficult at all. The guy I was negotiating with wasn’t being stubborn or obstinate. He was very cordial, even when it looked like the fight wasn’t going to happen.?

Besides, Arum said with a chuckle, ?Most of the talks happened while I was on the French Riviera, so how bad can that be??

Nice.

And justice for all

Arum had promoted De La Hoya and Mayweather for good portions of their respective careers before they squared off in May 2007. Unfortunately for Arum, ?had? is the key word. He was no longer promoting either by the time they duked it out, meaning Arum was left out of all that money, money that he perhaps was entitled to after doing such a good job ? especially with De La Hoya ? in carving out their careers.

Arum, however, wouldn’t bite when asked if now being a part of Pacquiao-De La Hoya and all the dough it is going to generate takes the sting out of being left out of Mayweather-De La Hoya.

?There was no sting when I was not involved in Mayweather-De La Hoya,? Arum said, seeming sincere. ?They had both moved on. It didn’t affect me at all. I went about and did my business. Now I’m involved in this fight with Manny Pacquiao. The fact that De La Hoya is on the other side is good for business. But there is no other emotion involved in it. That’s the truth.?

Hard to believe, but, OK.

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