The big question is not whether or not you feel as though the public would actually ?buy? the super fight between Oscar De la Hoya and Manny Pacquiao, the question is whether you, as a consumer, would set foot in a restaurant that once failed to live up to the proposed expectations.
That is the one and only question in this whole scenario. Well maybe not the only one but it definitely will play a major role in the success of December 6.
We must remember, Pacquiao-De la Hoya is not only fighting to garner the spending dollars of the U.S. public outside of the hardcore fanatics, they?re fighting the current recession facing the country in addition to the nasty taste left in the mouths of those that purchased ?The World Awaits?. Say what you want, I did not get any positive feedback from virtually anyone regarding that particular fight.
One must also take into account that Oscar De la Hoya only garnered 2.1 million live viewers for his bout with Steve ?Two Pound? Forbes this past May. I say only being that it is a miniscule number in comparison to ratings of years past. However, it still ranks as being the highest rated HBO boxing program so far this year.
While the ?Golden Boy? and the ?Pacman? will be embarking on a six city press tour on October 1, they will be targeting 5 less major metropolitan areas than was the case for the ?Money? bout. The presser will consist of visiting the following cities? New York, Chicago, Houston, San Antonio, San Francisco and Los Angeles.
The omitted cities on this go around are Miami, Detroit, Washington DC, Philadelphia, and Las Vegas. I suspect that these five locations were left off the list due to the current economic catastrophes surrounding them as well as the feedback in terms of Pay-Per-View figures.
Maybe it?s all gibberish? well I?m actually quite sure that it is.
All I know is that the current economic climate here in the U.S. is getting worse by the day. Companies are downsizing or closing, people are losing their houses, we?re in the midst of a seriously dangerous credit crunch, and after May 5, 2007, people might just not be so willing to shell out that extra fifty duckets or so during the Christmas season this year. The financial status of most Americans has changed drastically within the past year or so which is something that must be taken into consideration in comparison to that of years past.
The one thing that I am quite sure of is that Manny Pacquiao will most likely draw most if not all of his 4 million country men and women residing here in the states to purchase the bout. In fact, I?m quite sure that a high percentage of them purchased the David Diaz fight.
You then might ask, ?How is that possible? The Pay-Per-View figures for that fight weren?t very good.?
I reply with, ?Have you ever been to a Filipino household on a Pacquiao fight night? I?ve seen houses packed with upwards of thirty and forty people. It?s nothing but mayhem, madness, and serious lack of oxygen.?
Manny is guaranteed to draw his own loyal following and a bit more for this fight which probably equates to somewhere in the 250,000 buy region.
What? You thought that the 400,000 buys that transpired for Marquez-Pacquiao II was all based on the Filipino icon?
Delusional nitwits.
Then you have Oscar? the ?Golden Goose? of boxing.
This guy could probably fight a trilogy match with Julio Cesar Chavez senior and still garner over half a million buys.
This guy could probably fight Minnie and Mickey Mouse and draw over 400,000 buys. The man is just that popular.
So the next questions in this whole ordeal might be? what are the projections and will it outdo ?The World Awaits??
Well? taking into account the fact that Hatton-Mayweather drew 850,000 purchases having followed the Cinco De Mayo bout, it is a testament to the strength of the four-part 24/7 countdown series. While the difference between 2.4 million and 850,000(a figure outdone by De la Hoya-Mayorga) equates to 1,550,000, the ?Hitman? vs. ?Money? still managed to outsell anything else in 2007.
I still do recall when the ?powers that be? projected 1.5 million domestic purchases for Hatton-Mayweather. (They then attempted to compensate for their flawed projections by citing overseas figures.)
As popular as Hatton is overseas, his fan base here in the states is nothing to gloat over. His exposure to the American public largely comprised of his fights on Showtime until HBO decided to snatch the beer-swilling Brit. The ?Hitman? engaged in three fights on the ?Heart and Soul of Boxing? (all garnering standard average ratings) prior to his showdown with Mayweather this past December. He never actually proved himself as a legitimate, stand alone HBO Pay-Per-View star as has Pacquiao to a certain extent. (He also garnered a dismal rating of merely 281,000 viewers when he fought Juan Lazcano on the Versus network.)
So here are my very amateurish and flawed projections in terms of number projections:
Manny will bring a slightly larger figure than usual somewhere in the region of 250,000 buys.
De la Hoya already has a built in base number of 500,000 minimum buys.
The 24/7 countdown show will add an additional 500,000 buys. How so? Based on Mayweather?s normal drawing capabilities outside of ?The World Awaits? which normally hovered in the 300,000 purchase region (compared to the 850,000 for Hatton).
The six-city press tour is the wild card in this whole situation. While the main stream press fails to cover most of what we as boxing fanatics consider major fights, they cannot avoid the hoopla surrounding an Oscar De la Hoya citing in their own backyard. The question is whether the announcement of Pacquiao-De la Hoya will find a way to stick out in everyone?s mind or whether it will get lost in the midst of all the madness surrounding the presidential campaign, relentless hurricanes, as well as the rest of the craziness shoved down our throats by the general media.
I?m sure the major sponsors of the bout will get involved in the promotion as well which will lead to even more exposure for the fight deemed as ?Personal?.
While I shake the magic eight ball, crunch these numbers and variables into my boxing pay-per-view projecting calculator, the final projected number for Pacquiao-De la Hoya is?. somewhere in the region of 1.3 million buys.
What?
You?re telling me that it?s an unrealistically low figure?
Taking everything into account? I think that it?s a pretty reasonable figure. Had this fight taken place prior to Mayweather-De la Hoya and in a different economic climate, I?d say the figure would be significantly higher.
The fact of the matter is that things are the way they are and 1.3 million should be considered extremely successful at this current moment.
In the greater scheme of things, none of this truly matters as it?s the quality of the product that counts the most. The fight itself can garner over 5 billion buys but if it once again fails to produce in terms of promised entertainment value? remember? ?blood, guts, etc etc.? it will have done more damage to boxing than help.
Now give me my goddamn chicken adobo with a side of refried frijoles. I?m thinking that Pacquiao-De la Hoya will produce being that one of the most exciting fighters of our era will once again be lacing up the leather and heading into battle?
PS. I?m absolutely convinced that had the same promotional muscle gone into promoting De la Hoya-Hopkins as had gone into De la Hoya-Mayweather, that fight might have done close to 2 million buys if not much more. Don?t ask me why, it?s just my opinion.
