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Who is Arum thinking of?

The STAR published yesterday the ?gag order? Top Rank head Bob Arum supposedly issued against WBC lightweight champion Manny Pacquiao and his trainer, Freddie Roach. Arum wants the two to keep quiet on who Pacquiao should fight next, and avoid particularly statements that would hurt any negotiations for a fight against Oscar dela Hoya.

Another daily paper (not The STAR) has reported that negotiations are on hold until after the Miguel Cotto-Antonio Margarito fight. Despite that, I?d like to raise a few questions about this development.

I understand that it would make good business sense to be involved in the farewell bout of one of the all-time greats. It would be great to see Manny fight Oscar. But even officials of Golden Boy Promotions, when asked about this possibility before the ?Invasion? card a few months ago, demurred. They didn?t seem enthusiastic about having their boss in an exhibition against a fighter who may be a big draw, but is naturally smaller.

Dela Hoya has been fighting at 150 pounds or higher for the last seven years. His last fight below that weight was at 146 pounds against Arturo Gatti in March of 2001. He even fought at 160 back in 2004.

That raises questions about what weight he will fight Pacquiao at. There have been reports that he will face Pacquiao at 147. And given that boxers usually gain at least 10 pounds between the weigh-in and the actual fight, dela Hoya will actually be 157 pounds or more. If you remember, Pacquiao started out very slow against Juan Manuel Marquez because he gained too much weight after the weigh-in. Pacquiao can?t afford to risk losing his speed advantage against a crafty veteran like dela Hoya. Manny will be taking the bigger health risk, too.

Besides, even if it turns out to be a great fight, what will it accomplish? At the end of the day, it?s still an exhibition between a champion and a non-champion. It may be good money for Arum to ride on the name of dela Hoya and Pacquiao together, but so what? It may also be interesting to note that Golden Boy has lost three of his last six fights, not exactly a golden record. The former Olympic gold medallist didn?t fight in 2005, only fought once in 2006, once in 2007, and once this year.

Remember that dela Hoya had trouble against the smaller, younger Steve Forbes, winning by unanimous decision. But prior to fighting dela Hoya, Forbes had lost two of his last three fights, too.

Also, Filipinos have shown they aren?t particularly thrilled by exhibitions. Even when great NBA players have come to the Philippines to play, they have had big crowds, but haven?t packed their venues.

That?s also one reason why the PBA All-Star Game is played outside Metro Manila, because that?s where their audience is hungry to see the country?s best ballers. Exhibitions don?t really sell that well in the Philippines. Arum is counting on dela Hoya?s pay-per-view box office appeal in American to pull in a big audience, along with Pacquiao?s pull among Filipinos in the US. He?s hoping the actual fight would be more interesting than the videogame fantasy sequence.

One more thing. It must be clarified how and to whom exactly this ?gag order? was issued. I would understand if Arum was upset with Roach, because he may have felt Roach?s statements would have been better delivered AFTER the contract with dela Hoya was signed. He would be treating Roach as ?only? a trainer, an employee of his fighters. It would be in poor taste if he also said these things to Pacquiao. Then again, this tells me that Roach is looking out for Pacquiao, and wants a quality fight.

So who is Arum looking out for?

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