LAS VEGAS ? Anything can happen when two explosive punchers face off in a fight for pride, legacy and boxing immortality.
David Diaz puts his WBC lightweight championship on the line against Manny Pacquiao who?s seeking a fourth (fifth, counting the Ring Magazine featherweight title) crown in their 12-round fight at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino here this morning (Manila time).
Pacquiao said he won?t be a standing target for the rampaging Diaz and will dazzle the 1996 Olympian with his blinding speed and bone-crushing power. Diaz will use his superior body weight to tire out Pacquiao and push him to the ropes and corners.
Because neither Diaz nor Pacquiao is known for defense, the fight could theoretically end sooner than later. A slight opening is all it takes to land a big punch. Pacquiao is the more devastating puncher so it will be to his favor if it ends early. Diaz is a durable plodder who gets stronger the longer the fight. Pacquiao?s stamina will be tested if Diaz manages to extend the bout to a late finish.
Diaz? right eye was badly swollen in his fights against Jose Armando Santa Cruz and Erik Morales, both of whom he beat. Against Pacquiao, the right eye will be a natural target for the Filipino?s left. Once Diaz? eye begins to close, it will be the beginning of the end because Pacquiao won?t let his slower opponent off the hook like Santa Cruz and Morales did.
Here are the 10 factors of consequence in the fight:
? Power. There?s no question who?s the harder puncher. Pacquiao has scored 35 KOs in 46 wins while Diaz, only 17 in 34. Diaz didn?t score a stoppage until his seventh bout. Pacquiao packs dynamite in either hand. His right cross will be a major weapon in dismantling Diaz? defense. Advantage: Pacquiao.
? Speed. You can?t hit a target that isn?t there. Pacquiao will use his quickness to spin away from Diaz whenever he comes forward. He?ll stick and run. He?ll frustrate Diaz with side-to-side movement. But a word of caution. Pacquiao can?t get careless. If he tires and stops moving, Diaz becomes lethally dangerous. Advantage: Pacquiao.
? Resiliency. This is about fighting intelligently. Both Pacquiao and Diaz have shown the ability to make crucial mid-fight adjustments in the past. Diaz proved himself by coming from behind to beat Santa Cruz and Morales. The ability to take a punch is also a function of resiliency. Advantage: Diaz.
? Defense. Both fighters use offense as their defense. Diaz is much easier to hit because he?s slower to cover up when charging in. Pacquiao has a tendency to get careless on the attack and sometimes, leaves himself open to counters. Pacquiao learned a lot of lessons on defense from Juan Manuel Marquez and they?ll come in handy against Diaz. Advantage: Pacquiao.
? Footwork. It won?t just be handspeed to make a difference. It will also be footspeed. Diaz is flat-footed and has little lateral mobility. Pacquiao likes to circle his opponents and create angles. He?s expected to move away from Diaz? left and work the right jab sliding back. Advantage: Pacquiao.
? Aggressiveness. Diaz is a born brawler who knows only one way to fight ? straight up and moving forward. He?ll press the action from the start, trying to force a slugfest. He?ll bait Pacquiao to engage and fight from close quarters. His goal is to cut the ring off on Pacquiao then bring him to a phone booth confrontation. Advantage: Diaz.
? Size. Diaz made his pro debut as a junior welterweight and dropped down to lightweight for the chance to win a world title after losing to Kendall Holt in 2005. He?s naturally bigger than Pacquiao. When the bell rings, he?s expected to outweigh Pacquiao by 10 pounds. The extra weight will make Diaz slower but if used properly, could be a critical edge. Advantage: Diaz.
? Coaching. There?s no better coach in the business than Freddie Roach, with due respect to Jim Strickland. Roach is a master in reading situations and devising strategies to exploit an opponent?s weaknesses. Pacquiao is in good hands with Roach whose experience in handling over 20 world champions is vital. Advantage: Pacquiao.
? Endurance. Pacquiao had less training hours than Diaz but is in superb shape, thanks to strength and conditioning coach Alejandro Ariza. Diaz is older by three years but Pacquiao turned pro a year earlier. Diaz hasn?t been exposed to as many wars as Pacquiao and took a two-year layoff before resuming his career in 2002. There is less wear and tear on Diaz whose stamina is incredible. Advantage: Diaz.
? Quality of opposition. Diaz has never faced anyone quite like Pacquiao. This is a severe test for the defending champion whose biggest win so far was a decision over a faded Morales. Pacquiao has fought opponents of higher caliber but can?t afford to underrate Diaz who?s hungry and eager to prove he belongs in the elite class. Advantage: Pacquiao.
My forecast is Pacquiao will batter and bloody Diaz to a pulp, leaving him a hapless victim to force a stoppage before the 10th.
