On Saturday night, Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez meet in Las Vegas (and on HBO pay-per-view) in the long-awaited rematch of their 2004 draw. It’s not often that two of top three pound-for-pound fighters in all of boxing meet in the ring, so this fight is an absolute must-see bout. In their first meeting, on May 8, 2004, Pacquiao knocked Marquez down three times in round one, but Marquez weathered the storm and rallied over the remaining 11 rounds to earn a split draw. Since their first meeting, Pacquiao has gone 7-1 with wins over Erik Morales (twice) and Marco Antonio Barrera. The lone loss was to Morales in the first of their three meetings. Over the same time, Marquez has compiled a 6-1 record with wins over Barrera and Rocky Juarez. The loss came to undefeated Chris John in John’s native Indonesia.
If Pacquiao wins, there is talk of him moving up to lightweight for a July meeting with WBA champ David Diaz, who defendsd his title on the Pacquaio-Marquez undercard. There also remains speculation that if Pacquiao gets by both Marquez and Diaz – talk about looking ahead – he could face Oscar De La Hoya in September in what would be billed as the Golden Boy’s career finale. Sounds good in theory, but the reality is that Pacquaio is 5-6 and has never fought above 130 pounds. De La Hoya is nearly 5-11 and hasn’t competed below junior middleweight (154 pounds) since 2001! Sounds a lot like the type of matchmaking that De La Hoya feasted on early in his career … and exactly what he’s looking for after losing three of his last five bouts.
Prediction: Pacquiao is favored by oddsmakers but this is truly a pick ’em fight. As demonstrated in the first fight, Pacquiao is heavier handed and Marquez is the better technician. However, in the nearly four years since their first meeting, Pacquiao has actually improved as he now shows slightly more discipline in the ring. Also, at 29, Pacquaio is likely closer to his physical prime than the 34-year-old Marquez. Pacquaio will be the agressor but can’t count on multiple knockdowns this time around so he’ll have to outwork and out-land Marquez — no easy task. Marquez will look to counter Pacquiao effectively, win rounds and – of course – stay off the canvas. Pacquiao by split decision.
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