It has been stated often, and in slightly divergent ways, but in order to understand the future you have to study the past. To that end I go back at the end of every year to review my previous year?s predictions, division by division, for both accuracy and insight. Last week I recounted my selections from strawweight to junior lightweight, and this week I venture into boxing’s traditional glory divisions, although, it must be said, using the term glory and heavyweight is an oxymoron considering the last decade.
As with last week?s recap, I quote a key sentence or two from last year?s projections in the review. This gives a better sense of how my decisions were formulated, and the thought process behind my choices, or maybe a lack thereof.
LIGHTWEIGHT
Champ who will stay: Juan Diaz What I said: “Is the youngest (23), most aggressive, has the weakest list of contenders, and is promoted by Don King. Any questions?” Grade: A – If I had known the quality of big game opposition Diaz would be hunting in 2007, I might have went in another direction. The only direction Diaz seems headed in the near future is up!
Champ who will go: Joel Casamayor What I said: “Coming to the end of his career, Joel is looking for high profit bouts, which will surely merit tough opposition to justify TV dates that furnish the monetary windfall. I think lightweight is the one division in which all champs will retain their titles, but if I had to pick one, circumstances dictate it be Casamayor.” Grade: C – Technically I should give myself an A, because he was stripped by the WBC for inactivity. But I respect The Ring magazine belt he retained. I did state that I thought all lightweights would keep their belts, and judging by Casamayor’s performance (most thought he was given a gift decision against Armando Santa Cruz) he would not have retained the title if he entered the ring more then once.
Will rise in 2007: Anthony Peterson What I said: “Don’t look for future opponent Juan Garza, who has a deceivingly good looking 28-2 record, to be the first to give Peterson any trouble.” Grade: B+ – Garza did not give Peterson any trouble, going down in four one-sided rounds. I give myself a B, because I expected more improvement from Anthony over the year, even though he knocked out three of four opponents. Maybe I am expecting too much too soon? The Peterson brothers have become darlings of ESPN, so look for more of them this year and a title shot in early 2009.
JUNIOR WELTERWEIGHT
Champ who will stay: Junior Witter What I said: “The rest of the WBC’s contenders, outside of Herman Ngoudjo, are beatable and play into the herky jerky style of Witter. Unless Witter can finally goad Hatton into a fight, I do not see him challenged until early 2008.” Grade: A – Maybe now that Hatton grudge match can take place? Witter is doing his part, looking good by scoring knockouts over Vivian Harris and Arturo Morua.
Champ who will go: Juan Urango What I said: ?Should not have held the title in the first place, as he was clearly outpointed by Naoufel Ben Rabah but got a home promoter?s decision. Now he faces Hatton, who brings the kind of HBO clout that Urango’s promoter can not match.” Grade: A – Lost the title lopsidedly to Hatton. Urango is fun to watch, but until he develops a jab to accentuate and hide his punching angles, the elite will continue to defeat him.
Will rise in 2007: Herman Ngoudjo What I said: “I wish he would get at least three or four more fights under his belt before going after Jose Luis Castillo, but I assume his management believes he is ready for the January bout.” Grade: C – I give myself a passing grade because Herman is fighting for the IBF title, against Paul Malignaggi, on the basis of a close split decision loss to Jose Luis Castillo. Also defeated dangerous punching Randall Bailey in a serious step-up this year.
WELTERWEIGHT
Champ who will stay: Antonio Margarito What I said: “When discussing Margarito, the term “risk vs. reward” usually enters around the second sentence. Before Margarito even gets a chance at Cotto he will likely have to defeat red hot contender Paul Williams (while Cotto gets a relatively easier fight against Oktay Urkal), but such is my faith in Margarito that I see him coming through it via decision.” Grade: D – Ooops, I missed that call. Did not pull out the F bomb since it was a close, but clear, decision loss to Williams. Margarito looked good in his comeback fight, but lost a full year on getting Cotto in the ring with him.
Champ who will go: Miguel Cotto What I said: “Didn’t I just pick Margarito to defeat this champ? Enough said.” Grade: F – Yeah I deserve this one. I still believe Margarito’s style would give Cotto fits, and that Margarito wins that match. Yeah, I know, sour grapes.
Will rise in 2007: Andre Berto What I said: “Just had an eye opening win over Miguel Figueroa on HBO, and should be continually featured on the network in 2007. Is amazingly accurate for a guy who keeps his legs spread and looks for power punches, and looks like he can switch to a higher punch output with lower power strategy if needed.” Grade: B – There was that little knockdown incident, against Cosme Rivera, which has some questioning Berto’s chin. It prevents me from handing out an A, and gives Berto some room for improvement next year. Still, a solid world class prospect.
JUNIOR MIDDLEWEIGHT Champ who will stay: Sergiy Dzinziruk What I said: “There are a couple of advantages to being a nameless European entity in America, especially if you hold a belt. One is that you generally draw big crowds, at home, making it economically feasible to stay there and take on weak WBO mandatory challengers. The other is that the big boys of boxing do not see the need to fight you, since it would not be a career validation to beat a nameless foe who holds no historical cache.” Grade: A – Made it even easier on himself by only fighting once in 2007, an eleventh round kayo of Brazilian prospect Carlos Nascimento. Look for more fights in 2008, and more of the same results.
Champ who will go: Oscar De La Hoya What I said: “See my main reasoning under the ‘best available fight’ section.” Grade: A – Which is where I saw an Oscar loss to Mayweather or Cotto.
Will rise in 2007: Joachim Alcine What I said: “At 30 the time to strike is now, and he is situated well since he is rated the number one contender by the WBA. Will need his mid range promoter to work with Don King to get a title shot at Jose Antonio Rivera or Travis Simms, either of which is a winnable proposition for the smooth boxing Alcine.” Grade: A+ – He got that Simms fight, and pulled away late to win the title in Simms’ hometown. Two weeks ago defended the title against Alfonso Mosquera, and should get three bouts in this year.
MIDDLEWEIGHT
Champ who will stay: Arthur Abraham What I said: “Outside of Winky Wright and Edison Miranda, the IBF top ten is replete with beatable challengers. I do not see Wright going to Germany to fight Abraham, and Abraham has shown to be slightly superior to Miranda already.” Grade: A – I think Abraham is the goods, and the best all around middleweight out there… including Kelly Pavlik if he stays at middleweight. Likes to stay active, so I can see him posting four victories in ’08.
Champ who will go: Mariano Carrera What I said: “Can’t say I have seen any fights outside of the Castillejo bout, but the lanky former Olympian looks like a weak counterpuncher in a division dominated by hard hitting champions. I think Sturm takes his title by the end of 2007.” Grade: A+ – OK, so it was Javier Castillejo who avenged his title losing effort to Carrera (in which Carrera tested positive for steroids). But, I did everything but name the round in which Castillejo would knock him out.
Will rise in 2007: John Duddy What I said: “He is already getting a big push by TV executives who love him, and ethnically Duddy can rely on a large Irish American population looking for their next Barry McGuigan. Oh yeah, the kid makes for exciting fights too, which is the real reason everyone in boxing wants a piece of the promising young gun.” Grade: B+ – Just defeated toughman Howard Eastman in a career best win, and gets a B for beating a top B level fighter. Look for him to scale down his ring appearances, from five to three or four this year.
SUPER MIDDLEWEIGHT
Champ who will stay: Mikkel Kessler What I said: “Kessler holds the WBC and WBA titles, and there is no IBF champion right now. With Calzaghe as my choice for champ who will go, it leaves me with a weaker choice to stay when you consider his title challengers. But it is one I am willing to take.” Grade: F – Damn, my hard Irish head genes and its gambling tendencies.
Champ who will go: Joe Calzaghe What I said: “Be it through weight making issues, more money at light heavyweight, or Mikkel Kessler…Calzaghe will not be a champion in 2008.” Grade: F- – Pass me some ketchup to help ease this crow down my throat.
Will rise in 2007: Librado Andrade What I said: “There are some fighters whose stock rises even in defeat. So, even if Andrade does get a title shot and fails, his star will continue to rise. If you used to watch fights on HBO Latino, you already know about this fun brawler.” Grade: D – I do not give myself an F, because Andrade did show an amazing chin and resiliency in his loss to Kessler. Otherwise, I am just like every other American when it comes to figuring out the super middleweight division…pathetic.
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT
Champ who will stay: Zsolt Erdei What I said: “Roy Jones is his number one contender, and what do you think the odds are that Jones will travel to Germany or put up the large monies needed to bring the fight to America? Yes, none. Erdei will defend three times against decent opposition. He is a good notch above good, so he should retain his title.” Grade: A – Three good wins later and Erdei is still the champion. I would like to add that he is not as limited as I had initially judged him to be. By the end of the year I would rate him at 50-50 to beat Antonio Tarver.
Champ who will go: Silvio Branco What I said: “The Italian can not even crack my, and most objective, top ten rankings, so why would I chose him to keep the title for a year?” Grade: A – Lost his title to Stipe Drews, setting up a decent all Germany light heavyweight clash between Drews and Erdei in the process.
Will rise in 2007: Adrian Diaconu What I said: “I am basing this pick more on potential and physical prime than strength of conviction. He is a good puncher, but might be losing focus having gone the distance in his last two fights against stoppable opposition. Has beaten a good mix of foes, but is it enough to beat any champ outside of Branco?” Grade: B – Destroyed fellow prospect Rico Hoye in three rounds. Diaconu drew rave reviews from ESPN in the bout, and they will return for his next fight. A win in that bout should set up a title fight for late 2008. Might have missed this pick by a calendar year.
CRUISERWEIGHT
Champ who will stay: Krzysztof Wlodarczyk What I said: “By defeating Steve Cunningham for the vacant IBF title, Wlodarczyk vanquished his toughest opponent. The rest of the IBF top ten are on the opposite end of the scales when it comes to youth and age, and will be defeated because of it.” Grade: D – Damn that immediate rematch clause, otherwise I believe my prediction would have held up. Credit to Cunningham for the mental strength to return to Poland and eek out a majority decision.
Champ who will go: O’Neil Bell What I said: “The odds, however, are that either he will be stripped for inactivity or lose to the likes of David Haye or a rematch with Jean Marc Mormeck. The cruiserweight division will be poorer in brawling action for Bell’s replacement at the top, so I will be rooting against my pick here.” Grade: A – I think Haye would have defeated Bell more impressively then Mormeck, but will probably never get to see if it would have be so in real life.
Will rise in 2007: Jonathan Banks What I said: “Heart and determination can not be taught, and Banks proved he had plenty by overcoming two first round knockdowns to one time prospect Eliseo Castillo. The knockdowns were not of the flash variety either; Banks was badly hurt but used his extensive amateur experience and sparring sessions with former heavyweight king Lennox Lewis to survive the round.” Grade: B – I can not quarrel with his activity, winning five bouts, but the level of opposition for Banks was decidedly mediocre. Probably a good thing, as he is not ready for the top five in this suddenly talent laden division. At 25, they are right to let him mature a bit more.
HEAVYWEIGHT
Champ who will stay: Wladimir Klitschko What I said: – “In the land of the blind, a man with one eye is king, and in a talent drained division, the best offensive fighter will rule.” Grade: A – Yeah, I know…bold pick.
Champ who will go: Shannon Briggs What I said: “Check out his career – when has Briggs defeated two top ten fighters in a row? The answer is never, and I look for the streak to continue.” Grade: A – As predictable as Briggs? anemic punch output.
Will rise in 2007: Ruslan Chagaev What I said: “The Uzbeki is the best young European heavyweight, which automatically makes him the best young heavyweight in boxing. At 6’1, he lacks size, but puts his 235 pounds behind every punch, and has shown an ability to get inside behind his jab. Dishes out some wicked shots during infighting, and is not exactly lost when at a distance.” Grade: A – Used every asset I listed in his somewhat unexpected, given the outlandish size difference, win over Nicolai Valuev. The Uzbeki is a very live underdog against Samuel Peter or Wladimir Klitschko, and I would favor him to beat Peter if that match comes off later in 2008.
