Welcome again to my mailbag RSR readers. I hope that everyone had a joyous Thanksgiving holiday and that nobody overdosed on turkey. Although I gorged myself sufficiently on turkey, stuffing, mashed potatoes, green beans, etc; I was able to wake up from my food coma in time to catch the Fernando Vargas vs. Ricardo Mayorga fight the next day. Before I get to the fight, I have a gripe with a Thanksgiving food tradition that is making a comeback. Green bean casserole, made with the cream of mushroom canned soup, should have stayed out of style. Putting green beans in a tub of gray colored, foul smelling goop is a waste of green beans in my opinion.
Back to Mayorga vs. Vargas, Mayorga came out with fury in the first round but faded down the stretch. Yet he was still able to score a knockdown and secure the decision win late in the fight. That shows how far that Vargas has slipped. He could not even deal with a free-swinging slugger who was completely gassed. Back in the late 1990?s Fernando was an absolute stud. He had a fighter?s instinct but also had the boxing skills needed to compete on the elite level. That was evident in his two best wins, over Winky Wright and Ike Quartey. The way Vargas was able to channel his natural aggression into a precise boxer-puncher made him as dangerous as he was fun to watch.
Looking at Vargas? career before and after the fight with Felix Trinidad, it is clear that Trinidad ruined Vargas. He was never the same, physically or mentally. He was never able to win a high profile fight after the Trinidad fight, often getting knocked out while playing the role of the glorified opponent. He was sure fun to watch though, and deserving of his fame and notoriety. Hopefully his promise to retire is followed through with.
As for Mayorga, he finally has a decent win under his belt; the first since defeating Vernon Forrest years ago. Mayorga can punch hard and is effective at applying pressure, but he has too many flaws to be an elite, pound for pound type fighter. He does not have a logical next opponent at this point. I wouldn?t mind seeing him challenge Roman Karmazin, who deserves another opportunity, Antonio Margarito, who is always looking for opponents, or even a third fight with Vernon Forrest.
Now to the mailbag questions. This week we have some good questions and as always, a hefty load of Manny Pacquiao emails. Enjoy.
The UK?s Best
I haven?t written to the mailbag in a long time, possibly since the days of Geno, but I gotta say you are doing a great job. I would like to ask about the future for the two outstanding British talents at this time. First is Calzaghe. I have said for a long time that Calzaghe is a great boxer and I?m not surprised to see him at the pinnacle of the sport. My worry is that the noises coming from the Hopkins camp, especially his trainer, is that they are going to once again avoid Joe. It looks like Hopkins is after the Roy Jones payday – a completely meaningless fight in my opinion. My worry is that I don?t know whom this leaves for Joe. There is talk about him fighting Clinton Woods but I?d rather see a star American name. Hopkins is the obvious choice. I know Chad Dawson is a very promising fighter but the risk vs. reward factor just wouldn?t add up for Calazghe. Who do you see Joe fighting next, who should he fight next and who should he definitely not fight?
Now onto Ricky Hatton. I have to admit that the excitement is growing already for the clash with ?Pretty Boy? Floyd Mayweather. I?m going to make a bold prediction here but I predict that two people (at the very most) in the RSR team will pick Hatton for this one. Call me presumptuous but I don?t think you’ll be in this select group. If I am right – is this a measure of how lightly Hatton is regarded i.e. come forward banger with no great technical ability, or a measure of how highly you regard PBF? Personally I?ve been trying to decide for ages – my heart says Hatton is quick enough (PBF is quicker but Ricky is quick enough to connect), hard enough, determined enough and smart enough to achieve the greatest night for a British boxer ever. My head says PBF like him or not should go down as one of the greatest ever and will triumph after a very tough fight. Recently I?ve decided, I am going with my heart on this because that is what being a boxing fan is all about surely! I’d still fancy Erik Morales against anyone, such a brave fighter I couldn?t help but love him (in a very macho hetero way).
-Gerard McLaughlin
Gerard,
The latest reports suggest that a Calzaghe vs. Hopkins clash will not happen even though both claim to the press that they want the fight. That would be a pretty good fight although I am hesitant to endorse Hopkins as an opponent for an elite fighter like Calzaghe because, after all, he is 42 years old. Calzaghe said that he wanted old man Hopkins because Hopkins is shot and just wants the name on his record so he can brag about it. With that kind of attitude, part of me is hoping that he won?t be able to secure a match with Bernard, because that is an easy win for Joe in my opinion. My favorite choice for the next Calzaghe foe is Middleweight Champion Kelly Pavlik. Pavlik has stated that he wants to move up to super middleweight very soon. After a Pavlik vs. Taylor rematch, I think that Pavlik should pursue Calzaghe. Now for someone he should not fight, I will say Winky Wright because Winky needs to reestablish himself as an elite fighter and an interesting opponent.
I do not hesitate when I say that my prediction of Mayweather over Hatton is due to my immense respect for Mayweather. I am a big fan of Ricky Hatton and this that his pressure fighting and body attack gives him as good of a chance at beating Floyd as anybody at or around welterweight. I just don?t see anyone beating Mayweather at this point in his career. I am eager to see just how well Hatton will do though.
Pacman At Heavyweight
Hi Brian, it?s me again, just want to ask some fantasy match-up questions. I don’t know if this was already asked. Anyway here’s my questions are do you think Pacman could be more popular if he was a heavyweight instead of a lightweight? And assuming he was a natural heavyweight, how would you fare him against the likes of Klitchsko, Byrd, Rahman, Holyfield, Tyson and Lewis? Thanks and God bless!
-Rouge
Rouge,
Even average heavyweights are more popular and well known than champions at the lower weight classes. That is the nature of the glamor division; the big guys get all the glory. So definitely, Manny Pacquiao would be more popular if he was a heavyweight. Maybe not in the Philippines because it is probably impossible for Manny to any more popular than he already is in the Philippines. However in the rest of the world he would be.
If Pacquiao was able to get a hold of the machine from the movie ?Honey I Blew Up The Kids? and blew himself up to heavyweight size, I imagine that he would make an impact similar to the way that Mike Tyson did in his prime. His combination of speed and power would be a deadly combination at that weight. He is pound for pound better than any of the heavyweights today. I hesitate to say that ?big? Manny would defeat all time great heavyweights like Holyfield and Lewis, but they would be great fights!
Latin Fury On Dec. 1st
What’s the scoop on this Latin Fury card coming up? I saw a commercial and it looks like a bunch of angry Latinos. Should I buy into the hype?
-Matty
Matty,
If you are into pissed off Latinos fighting each other, then yes, buy into the hype! But seriously, these Latin Fury cards that Top Rank puts on are pretty minor. They are made to cash in on the Mexican demographic, which is a huge, profitable demographic in the boxing world.
The show on December 1st is headlined by Julio Cesar Chavez, JR., vs. Ray Sanchez. I don?t know much about Ray Sanchez except that he has a record of 20-1 and has never fought a ranked opponent. Notable fighters Jorge Arce and Ivan Calderon are also going to be featured on that card against non-descript opponents. A funny note on this card is that if you go to the Top Rank website they have a poll asking fans who they think will win between Chavez vs. Sanchez. They might as well have had a poll that asked who would win between ?The undefeated, son of a legend, Julio Cesar Chavez, JR., the greatest thing since sliced bread? or ?Some Guy.?
Pacquiao vs. Marquez 2
Although I haven’t read your article/opinion on why you choose Marquez over Pacquiao, I still believe that Marquez will lose via TKO if he slugs and via UD if he counter punch or run.
First, Pacquiao has evolved into a better boxer from being a one dimensional power puncher. Marquez gets away with a draw in their first fight owing to the fact that it was the first time Pacquiao faced a caliber counter puncher that’s why Manny lost to Morales a counter puncher in their first fight. When Manny defeated Morales via TKO, that makes me conclude that Marquez would be an easy target since Morales at that very time is considered superior to Marquez, Morales as a bigger, ironed chin, more experienced hall of famer, and stronger than Marquez that time.
Second, Marquez is older than Pacquiao, Pacquiao is in his prime.
Third, Marquez has no power on his punches when he faces a formidable opponent. He didn’t even knock down Rocky Juarez.
Fourth, Marquez is a slow starter. I don’t think he can bear the punishment that Pacquiao will inflict for three rounds before Marquez heats up.
Fifth, Marquez cannot take a punch. He was clearly nailed down by Barrera in their last encounter though ruled as a slip. He was almost knocked down by Jimrex Jaca, and was floored by Pacquiao three times in the first round eventually breaking Marquez’ nose. A good boxer would not simply fall down 3 times in the opening round just like that.
I hope you could give me some points on how Marquez will win. Long live boxing!
-Iceman
Iceman,
I have heard and responded to these arguments several times but, briefly, I will again.
First, I question just how much Pacquiao has improved since the Marquez fight. Yes he has improved, but I think the degree of his development has been exaggerated by the Pacmaniacs. Also, I question that the version of Erik Morales that Pacquiao beat is better than Marquez. Morales is a ?greater? fighter because he fought better opposition during his career, but Marquez is also an elite fighter and one with a style better suited for beating an aggressive fighter like Pacquiao. Plus, Morales was very close to retirement so his age could have played a factor as well.
Second, true but I have not seen any evidence of Marquez declining yet.
Third, has anyone ever knocked down Rocky Juarez? Juarez has an iron chin, probably the best in the division. That is a poor argument on your part. Marquez has above average punching power, but even if he didn?t, boxing skills hold more weight than punching power.
Fourth, Pacquiao always has a chance to score an early round KO because of his speed, power and punching accuracy, but I favor Marquez as the rounds go on.
Fifth, so Marquez cannot take a punch yet he has never been knocked out in his career? That is a neat trick. He has survived the distance against all of his opponents, including Pacquiao. Forget about the three early knockdowns, I was supremely impressed with the way that Juan Manuel picked himself up off the canvas then went on to dominate some of the later rounds. You are right, that is not the sign of a good fighter; that is the sign of a great fighter.
Why Pacquiao Couldn?t Finish Off Marquez
Hi Brian, greetings to you. I?m a reader of your mailbag and I want your opinion on this. I?m a Pac fan, and I watched the Pacman vs. Marquez fight. I don’t know if you are aware that Pacquiao had trouble finishing off Marquez because of Pacman’s busted foot and a swollen left hand going to the second round of the fight. Did you put this as a consideration on why Manny was outboxed in later rounds? I think you have a lapse in judgment by picking Marquez. When predicting a fight, you must consider all factors necessary that can affect the outcome. Obviously I am picking Pacman to win by KO. You are just one of Pacquiao?s critics, less knowledgeable of Pacman’s ability. If Pacman beats Marquez, I want you to explain what happened after the fight and then never predict a Pacquiao fight again.
-Joevel S. Barida
Joevel,
Thanks for the lesson on how to predict fights! I have heard about the toe and hand injury that Pacquiao suffered in the first Marquez fight but I don?t buy into the excuses that fighters claim after a fight. He didn?t look injured in the later stages of the fight to me. Lastly, even if I am completely wrong and Pacquiao dominates that fight, I will still continue to predict Pacquiao?s future fights. Even though occasionally I am wrong, predicting fights is what I do. You should not take someone picking against favorite fighter as a personal insult.
Katsidis As a Pacquiao Opponent
Hey Brian, I?d just like to tell you that you?re doing a great job with your mailbags. I have a high admiration for you. I would love to have your opinion on a fight between Michael Katsidis and Manny Pacman. I heard that Katsidis is a younger version of Pacquiao and would have the upper hand on him if the two fighters ever clashed. But I don?t know because Pacquiao has too much heart. Please enlighten me with your wisdom. Thanks for your time.
-Brian Tovera
Greetings fellow Brian,
I see Michael Katsidis as the next Arturo Gatti more than I see him as another Manny Pacquiao. Katsidis has good power, can apply pressure, and is routinely involved in fight of the year type bouts. The best chance that Katsidis has against Manny is to rely on his weight advantage to bully Manny around. He will want to try to make Pacquiao engage in a slugfest. Manny is a better fighter in the pound for pound sense because Katsidis has not yet proved himself at the highest level.
Response to Last Week?s Challenge
Hello Brian! This is my 1st email to you but I always read your mailbag. Anyway, I would like to congratulate you on your non-bias replies to your readers. I find it very intelligent when you answer them. The reason why I am sending this email is to comment on the guy who challenged you to put your career on the line over your prediction of the Pacquiao vs. Marquez rematch. When I read that and your reply I also laughed. Though I am also a Paclander, he challenged you as though he possessed the approval of all Paclanders! LOL! What a guy. Well, more power to your mailbag Brian.
-Darksword Serathus
Darksword,
Wasn?t that the silliest thing you?ve ever read? My favorite part of the email was that he wrote it in a tone that seemed to say, ?Of course you are going to accept this challenge.? Classic email.
More Feedback From The Challenge
Hi Brian, I just got to read the challenge made to you by Devilake regarding your opinion on Pacquiao vs. Marquez 2. I am glad you took the challenge with lots of humor. The challenge does not make sense. No intelligent discussion whatsoever.
Well it takes a lot of maturity not to be provoked. Let’s just say that Devilake DOES NOT speak for all Pacfans, ok? Thanks.
-Jan
Jan,
Thank you for the email and the assurance that Devilake does not speak for all Pacquiao fans. I could not help but laugh at his challenge though. That email is going into the Brian?s Boxing Mailbag hall of fame. I am happy that I have support from at least some Paclanders. Take care Jan.
Guzman vs. Soto Aftermath
Unfortunately, the Guzman-Soto fight wasn’t shown in the Philippines. But I heard Guzman boxed Soto most of the time to win a decision so Guzman stays within the “Pacquiao sweepstakes.” But if Joan would do the same against Pacman (that is, “boxes too much and slugs too little”), then I’m starting to lose interest for this matchup.
I have a broad interest in boxing which enables me to accommodate a variety of fighters, from the most devastating slugger to the slickest tactician; and of course, I would love to see Pacquiao winning his next bout, but for Manny to lose on points against an excessive mover like Guzman, I think it’s not worth it. That’s why PBF-Pacman matchup never really crossed my mind. I would rather see Manny Pacquiao once again fighting a fresher opponent who would be brave and durable enough (like Eric Morales before) to test his strength against the Pinoy prizefighter. Too bad Soto lost to Guzman, because I presume stylistically speaking, Soto is far more tailor-made for Pacquiao than Guzman.
In fact, I’m no longer salivating for a Pacquiao-Marquez rematch. It’s been almost four years since the controversial draw; and had one judge properly scored 10-6 instead of 10-7 for Pacquiao, he would have owned a win all these years over JMM. Though I’m a strong Pacman fan, I don’t find it hard to acknowledge that Manny was out-boxed by the more technically sound Marquez. So I would have to say both guys were too lucky to have scored a draw against each other in May 2004. But even if Pacquiao beats JMM convincingly next year, perhaps there would be a rematch, a rubbermatch, who knows? Then if Pacman would emerge as the trilogy victor or double winner for that matter, most people (especially Pacman haters) would say the same thing, that this Pinoy boxing superstar can only beat old washed up Mexican legends trying to pull some of the last great fights left in them. Please enlighten us on these issues, Brian. Many thanks.
-PinoyGlad
PinoyGlad,
I hope that you don?t lose interest in a Guzman vs. Pacquiao match. Joan Guzman did run around once he knew he had a large lead against Humberto Soto. However he is one of those rare boxers who can stand in front of his opponents and make them miss. I liken him to James Toney in that he stays in the pocket and fights. He is just very adept at slipping, blocking, and avoiding power shots. Guzman will stand and fight in spots although his power did not carry up from the 122 pound weight class. Pacquiao vs. Guzman is an interesting match up because Pacquiao has never fought a boxer quite like Joan Guzman. I have a hard time predicting how Manny will react and how that fight would play out. But you are right in that Pacquiao?s reputation would take a serious hit if he was out boxed and schooled by Guzman the same way that Soto was. Perhaps this fight does not make sense for team Pacquiao because they know how dangerous Guzman is, yet he does not represent the most money.
I am still crossing my fingers for a Marquez vs. Pacquiao rematch although David Diaz is all but confirmed as Pacquiao?s next opponent at this point. Perhaps team Pacquiao just wants to win the WBC belt from Diaz in order to have leverage in negotiations with Marquez.
More Potential Pacquiao Opponents
Yeah, I hope I don’t lose interest in Guzman in an opponent, but I’m beginning to be more interested to see how Juan Diaz or Humberto Soto (despite his loss to Guzman) would do against Pacquiao. I think Guzman would be too slick/evasive for Pacman, it?s NOT unlikely that the Pinoy would have to chase the Dominican all night in a predominantly hit-and-run or stick-and-move boxing style, coupled with occasional trading of punches done in a calculated manner, I mean in terms of volume and length of time perhaps. Though there is truth in what you said that it?s not wise to trade with Manny, but still I don?t look forward to just witness once again Guzman?s display of superior ring generalship.
Besides, I honestly suspect that he has set his eyes on Pacquiao only because Guzman wants to be the best at 130 pounds and to be that he will have to beat Manny. Therefore, I have a hunch that Guzman’s ultimate objective is to win (most likely by decision) and not to give a great or classic confrontation/collision with Pacquiao. It?s entirely thinkable that he doesn?t have what it takes to significantly hurt Pacquiao. Then what?s the point of making this matchup? I don?t absolutely advocate blood and guts but for the world to see how Pacman could be out-pointed by an opponent with no name recognition (except among hardcore boxing fans) appears to be an unworthy exercise/enterprise.
I mean I would rather deal with the possibility to see Manny losing to Juan Diaz or Soto in a great, unforgettable collision than a potentially passionless, too scientific, almost risk-free victory for Guzman over Pacquiao. There?s nothing like watching a fight with both fighters visibly taking some major risks in the ring with the hope of prevailing at the end of the bout. The unplanned, the unexpected aspect or the open-endedness of a fight is what makes the sport of boxing a true metaphor of life and of what it means to be human in general.
-PinoyGlad
PinoyGlad,
I see where you are coming from. I don?t advocate Humberto Soto as an opponent because he is coming off of a clear loss. And I don?t think he is as tailor made for Manny as you think. Soto is tall and lanky with a good jab and has been known to box and move all night. A match with Juan Diaz would be an absolute toe to toe war and win, lose, or draw, the fans will be satisfied with what they see.
Pacquiao Fighting David Diaz
Hi Brian, team Pacquiao looks like they are going to pick David Diaz to be his next opponent on March 2008. It’s obvious that the reason behind their decision is “money”, of course for both Bob Arum and Pacman. In my opinion, they want to fight Marquez when Pacman is the champion so that Juan Manuel Marquez will have no reason for overpricing.
Anyways, enough of these politics, let’s talk about boxing. What are your thoughts on Pacman vs. David Diaz? Do you think team Pacquiao is underestimating David Diaz?
For me, Diaz is easier opponent than JMM. Even though he is bigger, his go-forward style and poor defense will be his weakness when he faces Pacman. Although Pacman climbs up weight, I think his big punch will be still effective at lightweight. Maybe Pacman’s speed deteriorates slightly because of gained weight, he will still be too fast and too strong for David Diaz.
More power to you. Thanks for your time.
-Sac
Sac,
I really don?t like this fight for Pacquiao because I don?t think very highly of David Diaz. Pacquiao should be able to land accurately placed power punches and either outbox or stop Diaz. But Diaz is a big puncher for a lightweight and is bigger than any opponent that Pacquiao has ever faced. That is a dangerous combination so Diaz, with his flair for dramatic knockouts, definitely has a puncher?s chance against Manny. This will not be a walk in the park for Manny but he should win. I don?t understand this opponent selection because if you are going to take on an opponent who has a chance of beating you, at least take on a name opponent and not an anonymous, sub par belt holder like David Diaz.
That?s all for now folks. Send in your questions and I will feature them in next week?s edition of Brian?s Boxing Mailbag. Take care everyone and I look forward to hearing from you.
