This week the opening betting line for the November 17 super featherweight battle between the Dominican Republic?s Joan Guzman and Mexico?s Humberto Soto opened up. It was so perfect in describing how most insiders within boxing feel as to how this fight will play out.
-110 Humberto Soto
-110 Joan Guzman
That is dead even for you gambling illiterate readers. This is why it?s so shocking to me that the line has moved so drastically in such a short amount of time. From what I recall, the odds on this fight initially opened up on either Thursday or Friday of this past week. I haven?t taken a peek at them until Sunday evening and they are no longer even? not even close.
The betting public has placed their hard earned and not so hard earned cash on Guzman rather heavily driving him all the way up to -165 as of this moment. For a couple days of action that is quite a heavy move as this bout is flying somewhat under the radar as we approach Mosley-Cotto and Hatton-Mayweather.
There?s been a lot of hype surrounding Guzman being that he?s currently training under the tutelage of Floyd Mayweather Sr. in addition as being touted as potentially having the style to defeat Filipino icon Manny Pacquiao. While Guzman may very well indeed be the next big thing at 130 pounds, seeing him in person at the Pacquiao-Barrera rematch, his biggest battle could very well be with the scales.
I?m not insinuating that I saw him engorging himself at the buffet or pounding Crown bombs at the bar. All I?m saying is that he is pretty damn big for 130 pounds. He?s built like a large lightweight and even a solid junior welterweight. How he manages to make the super featherweight limit is nothing short of amazing in my eyes.
In any case, somebody with a large bankroll made a huge dent in this line as they felt that the initial odds of even money was a steal. Usually ?smart? money acts in this manner as it did on the initial Hopkins-Wright line and unlike the late money that flooded in on Jermain Taylor versus Kelly Pavlik. There?s always a point were the smart money overreacts and creates value on the other side of the betting line.
If Humberto Soto reaches +150 I?m firing bullets on that wager as the ?La Zorrita? is one tough hombre with a great set of skills. His punching style leads me to believe that he will trouble ?El Pequeno Tyson? throughout the night of November 17.
Either way, Soto-Guzman is another gem on regular HBO that has me as excited for a fight as I?ve been throughout this great year of boxing.
