On cue, 96 hours out from the first bell, Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury heated up the rhetoric during what was to be their valedictory pre-fight “press conference” and, though both men were specifically asked not to raise their hands above their waists, the fighters managed in high WWE-faceoff style to get entwined in a mini-shoving match, accompanied by massive shade-throwing, on Wednesday at the MGM Grand. Styling hard, Fury showed up in a white hoodie that he paired with a baseball cap and some mirrored shades, which he never took off, which served to emphacize his trademark recently-released-from-an-unspecified-detention air. And he acted that part to perfection, going for the verbal jugular with Wilder.
“Nobody knows you in your own country,” Fury said to the WBC belt holder.
After the staredown escalated to the point that it was necessary to put some bodies between the pugilists, Wilder felt moved to declare his agency in the two matches, not to mention his drawing power:
“Don’t you ever forget that when I found you, you were strung out on coke,” he said. “You were like a big house, contemplating killing yourself. Don’t you ever forget who brought you to big-time boxing. I brought you back, dragged you back, I put food on your table for your family to eat and I’m doing it again for a second time. I’m the one who sells the pay-per-view and tickets. They come to see me.”
In short, a stellar bit of theater sure to ramp up the pay-per-view, which has been estimated by promoter Bob Arum a few days ago at hitting some 2 million buys. At $80 a pop, the legendary Mr. Arum, a heavy participant in the deal, is happy to estimate a stratospheric payday of $160 million gross. We’ll see how that pans out on Saturday, but the fact is that Wilder and Fury are the best show in boxing, period, which is why Arum has not been shy to tout a rematch, which is to say, a Wilder-Fury III.
But before we get into the narrative of this fight – as opposed to the narrative that the fighters are presenting before they fight – here’s a look at the odds.
We’re going with four casino books: Caesar’s, the Wesgate, the Mirage, and the Wynn. The money at Caesar’s and the Wesgate has retained Wilder, from earlier in the week, as the slight favorite, at -125, with an implied probability of winning outright, no matter how, of 55.6%. These two books have Mr. Fury at -105, or an implied probability of 51.2%. The Mirage and the Wynn books are also in lockstep, but with slightly different numbers. Basically, both men have an increased chance of winning, which may seem oxymoronic, but it’s the way the money is flowing there right now. Mr. Wilder is at -130, or an implied probability of 56.5%, and Mr. Fury is hanging tough at -110, with a 52.4% probability of bringing home the bacon.
It’s when we get into the rounds betting – as in which fighter does what, and when – that the money starts narrating its more detailed version of how the fight will unfold. At BetOnline, the ‘over’ – meaning, whether the fight lasts longer than nine-and-a-half rounds – is at -110, or with 52.4% probability, and the ‘under,’ or whether the fight is stopped in less than nine-and-a-half rounds is flat even, or a 50% chance of happening. What the money’s telling us here is that there is a chance for Deontay Wilder to unleash his famous right hand before the 10th round, but it’s 50-50 whether Tyson Fury will give him the opening.
Wilder seemed flummoxed as Fury not simply went the distance in Wilder-Fury I, but also technically outboxed him, and by the 12th, Wilder was certainly looking to save the match with a KO. Which he finally connected to get with the infamous almost-KO. There are many questions about that precedent, however, and according to Wilder’s lifelong trainer Jay Deas, Wilder has “learned” that he has to stay focused after such a knockdown in order to finish the job. In short, Wilder knows that he did not finish the job and has made some adjustments in his strategy to counter that.
Wilder is, also, not going to stop looking for an opportunity to prosecute Fury with his right hand, especially not in this weekend’s fight, since Fury has felt the brunt of it 14 months ago. It means that Wilder will be happy to exploit every every possible crevice in Fury’s dancing for the delivery of the trademark right.
Assuming then that Fury will be heartily skipping out of the way of that right for at least part of his time in the ring — whether doing what he calls the herky-jerky or doing it more smoothly — the question is whether Wilder will be willing to give Fury the time or the opportunity to set up to get off his own newly-acquired KO punch. Wilder’s answer to that question would be no.
What the odds are telling us is that it’s not likely that this equation — of action and reaction — will change much in the ring on Saturday night.
