This is the kind of fight Gennady Golovkin (39-1-1, 35 KOs) could lose.
Facing Sergiy Derevyanchenko (13-1, 10 KOs) this Saturday at New York?s Madison Square Garden for the vacant IBF middleweight title, ?Triple G? is meeting the wrong kind of opponent at the wrong time and the matchup is a lot more dangerous for the Kazakh former 3-belt middleweight champ than the -550 betting odds in his favor would lead one to believe.
The 33-year-old native of Ukraine, Derevyanchenko is a pressure fighter by nature with good, solid fundamentals, who keeps up a solid work rate and delivers his shots with leverage and accuracy. Although in the books as only a 14-fight pro, a 390-20 record as an amateur (he was a teammate of Vasiliy Lomachenko in the 2008 Olympic games) and a 23-1 record in the World Series of Boxing give him seasoning well beyond what might normally be expected from a 5-year pro.
Nicknamed ?The Technician,? Derevyanchenko is not a brutish pressure fighter as most come-forward boxers tend to be. There is some finesse to his game. He employs a subtle use of angles on both offense and defense as well as a smart, controlled pace throughout a contest. Although lacking in true one-punch power, he lands often enough, solidly enough, and applies enough mental pressure to wear out and grind down opposition.
In his toughest bout to date, he stood his ground with Daniel Jacobs in a bid for the vacant IBF title, winning large chunks of the contest with his activity and dogged perseverance, but ultimately losing a close split decision. Wins over Jack Culcay (who he beat to once again become IBF top middleweight contender), Sam Soliman, and Tureano Johnson were solid enough, but don?t scream ?elite-level.?
Golovkin, meanwhile, is GOLOVKIN. With two phenomenally heavy hands thrown at often unconventional angles and an unflappable belief in his own fight-ending prowess, Golovkin is one of the best offensive fighters of this era. A 20-1-1 record in world title bouts with 19 KOs serves as a testament to his aggressive expertise, although many of those wins inside the distance were against stylistically tailor-made opposition.
There?s no reason to believe that the Kazakh KO machine can?t still be the elite-level offensive fighter he was before meeting with two virtual stalemates against Saul ?Canelo? Alvarez (actually, a draw and a loss in 2017 and 2018, respectively). What is questionable at this stage of his life and career, though, is how much pushback he has in his mind, body, and soul if an opponent refuses to play human sacrifice at his altar.
The 37-year-old is now making big, guaranteed money via his multi-fight deal with streaming service DAZN and has been making money-driven team business decisions?notably the release of long-time trainer Abel Sanchez after attempting to cut the trainer?s take of his earnings?that would lead one to believe that the ?good boy? has become more than a bit jaded from big money and big acclaim.
Golovkin has been aching for a third crack at DAZN?s biggest contract player, Canelo Alvarez, and was reportedly led into the DAZN deal with the tacit promise of eventually getting that shot. Alvarez, however, balked at a third Golovkin fight and in the matchmaking/power tug-of-war that ensued between Alvarez, his promoter Golden Boy and DAZN, the Mexican?s IBF belt was stripped from him, eventually tossed up for grabs in a bout between the sanctioning body?s two highest ranked contenders, Derevyanchenko and Golovkin.
Despite the pre-fight talk about him being up for this bout and treating it as he does every other championship fight of his career, the reality is that Golovkin probably doesn?t want to fight Derevyanchenko. It?s not that he?s ?afraid? of the challenge, it?s just that he likely feels?as he did last year when he was stripped of that same IBF belt for not fighting Derevyanchenko, who was the mandatory contender at the time?he should be doing bigger, better things.
So, the upset is being set up as if written into the script of a boxing film.
A 37-year-old star, in the second fight of a lucrative multi-fight contract, possibly jaded from success and money, with an eye on superstar-level blockbusters, fighting a fight he doesn?t want to be in, just for the sake of acquiring a belt, against a hungry opponent who, by nature, keeps coming forward no matter what.
Golovkin-Derevyanchenko will come down to how well Derevyanchenko, who has shown himself to have a sturdy chin, can take Golovkin?s punch. If ?The Technician? can stay on his feet and keep applying pressure to ?Triple G? while digging to the body (a specialty of his), something just might give and the sport could have another candidate for Upset of the Year.
This is not to say that Derevyanchenko WILL upset Golovkin, but the stars have aligned to make everything just right for a shocker.
