Fight fans in today’s world are bloodthirsty. While there are still a select few fans (yours truly) that still enjoy a technical boxing match as much as a brawl, the masses want to see guys get maimed. This is why a fantasy match-up between Manny Pacquiao and Edwin Valero is in hot demand.
Pacquiao, 45-3-2, 35 KO’s, is widely considered the #2 best pound for pound pugilist in the game. Valero, 22-0, 22 KO’s, simply knocks everybody out and usually waits no longer than the opening stanza to do so. Unfortunately for Valero, the New York State Athletic Commission handed him a boxing death sentence in 2004, an indefinite medical suspension that ended his fighting act in the USA. A motorcycle accident caused Valero to fail his MRI of the brain, so the Venezuelan has taken his show on the road, fighting out of the states and picking up a WBA Title strap along the way.
Personally, I don’t care where this fight takes place, in a bar, on a ferry boat or in a phone booth. Wherever they find a suitable venue, I will pay to see it happen. The question is, if it does happen, who leaves this war in one piece? I’ll start the line at 10-1 odds that this one doesn’t go the distance. Both of these men would rather take the short trip home rather than have the judges do their elementary math to decide a winner.
The punching power of these two is equal. Both men are murderous punchers. Pacman once did his bludgeoning solely with his left hand, but has recently added a short right hook to the mix. Valero is a wide puncher, who has little or no jab to speak of, but has KO written on both gloved Everlast logos with every punch. Valero, a 3-Time Venezuelan Amateur Champion actually has some boxing skills hidden underneath his blood and guts style. Valero, when he wants, can move, slip and outbox guys from his southpaw stance. Against the brutal Filipino Pacquiao, Valero would be best served to incorporate some of these skills. The problem, however, is that Valero has fallen in love with his punch. This is a problem not helped by his promoter TEIKEN who offers Valero a $10,000 bonus for first round KO’s.
Pacquiao himself is no Wilfred Benitez when it comes to boxing ability, but has added some wrinkles to his game from his training with great boxing instructor Freddie Roach. Pacquiao has learned how to use feints and counterpunches effectively in recent bouts. Blessed with naturally blinding hand speed, Pacquiao can put together combinations to the head and body with great effect. This is not good news for Valero with his wide open defense. And when I say wide open, I literally mean wide open. On a 1-10 scale rating defensive prowess, giving Valero a 3 is a stretch. Someone has forgotten to tell Valero that boxing is, in fact, a dangerous game. Valero comes straight forward with his hands held low, chin up in the air, slinging bombs from left field. He has a solid set of whiskers that he is supremely confident in. He is the definition of a macho Latino fighter. He has visited the canvas, but still has a no-fear attitude in regard to his opponent’s punching power. If not for his natural instincts from his experience as a world class amateur, Valero would get nailed with everything but the kitchen sink.
The Pacman is an average defensive fighter. His southpaw stance creates problems for some, but would be negligible in this match-up with Valero also being a southpaw. Pacquiao has been KO’d twice in his career but not in the last 8 years. He has a solid chin that he tucks down better than Valero. He also can use a decent jab to keep a guy thinking when he wants. With his aggressive style, he is there to be hit, but many of his opponents are concerned with what is coming back at them. In reality Pacquiao’s best defense is his awesome offense.
When it comes to physical strength, nobody Pacquiao has faced from 126-130 lbs. has been able to match him as a physical specimen. Pacquiao often looks a weight division larger than most of his opponents, being built with veins and abs bulging. All that changes though when he meets Valero. For once, he will be facing someone who is his physical equal. Valero is not only a shade taller with longer arms, but also is insanely strong at 130 lbs. Valero can eat shots to the body without cringing. He mauls people. Also 4 years younger and surely the fresher fighter, having been in less than half the fights of Pacquiao, his odometer is still low.
In a fight that will surely be a drag out affair, this could prove to be pivotal. What happens when the Pacman simply can’t run over a guy with his physical strength and gets pushed around himself? While he could most likely outbox Valero that really isn’t Pacquiao’s style. When guys get into trouble 90% of fighters revert to their original style regardless of their fight plan. For this reason, I see this fight going no other direction except for a visit to the E.R. for both men. It’s inevitable that both guys in this fight will get hurt at some point. I’m going to peg Pacquiao as an early 2-1 odds on favorite and this is why. Valero has gotten so overconfident that while he is a good conditioned fighter, he can tire. Pacquiao has great stamina.
In all-out wars I like to bet on the guy who is more durable. Once Valero tires, I see the lightning quick Pacquiao combinations finding a frequent home to just about every place of Valero’s legally hittable anatomy. I will say this though, if Pacquiao comes in just a step off as he did in his last fight against Jorge Solis, distracted perhaps by his recent political involvement, this fight becomes even money. Anything less than 100% preparation by Pacquiao might get him waxed. I expect surprisingly, there to be a slight feeling out process of maybe 1 round. Even such a loose cannon like Valero will most likely exhibit a little respect for Pacquiao’s power. After getting acclimated to their surroundings one or the other will eat some heavy leather, blood will start to boil and respect will be tossed out the window. From here on out anything could happen.
I expect both men to bleed and be knocked down at some point. In the end though, Pacquiao looking through a crimson mask will blast through Valero’s wide shots with short crisp shots of his own somewhere around the end of the 3rd frame for a KO victory.
