Sometimes disparity in desire and a perfect matching of strength to weakness, even if it?s on just one night, on one occasion, is enough to flip a script?
Back in December, I posted this bold prediction over at my other gig at FightHype.com and I took the appropriate amount of flak for it:
?Brandon Rios will stun Danny Garcia, winning via RTD in a rough, ugly brawl. A frustrated Garcia will quit on his stool between rounds nine and ten.?
Nearly two months later, not only am I holding firm on my call, but I?m putting my money where my mouth is. In a couple of days, I will be headed out from my Central Mexican mountain valley bunker to the closest big city to lay down a $500 dollar bet on Rios at +900 odds.
Danny Garcia has not looked even remotely interested in his craft since he outclassed Lucas Matthysse back in September of 2013. He?s 6-1 since that fight, but could easily be 4-3. Actually, he SHOULD be 4-3 since Mauricio Herrera and Lamont Peterson both outworked him and got shafted on the scorecards. And ?gimme? wins over no-hopers Rod Salka and Samuel Vargas during this stretch of time were as unconvincing as his wins over faded ex-champs Paulie Malignaggi and Robert Guerrero. The guy has been going through the motions for over four years now, turning in lackluster performances at three-quarters speed.
In the biggest fight of his career, a welterweight title unification bout against Keith Thurman last March on CBS, he couldn?t even muster the slightest hint of fire. In full sleepwalk mode, he displayed just enough resolve to keep himself from being embarrassed. And if Thurman had not, himself, been tepid and painfully conscious of the possibility of running into a big shot, Garcia would?ve been eaten alive and stopped within nine. A braver, hungrier, meaner opponent would?ve walked right through Garcia?s half-assed presence that night.
The thing about Garcia is that from everything we see and hear and from everything he has shown us, boxing is just not a priority in his life anymore. As I wrote elsewhere about a year ago:
?The fighter from Philadelphia has not looked at all like a ?Philly? fighter. His efforts suggest a certain sense of entitlement, like his mere presence should be enough to give him a win. He often seems to be going through the motions to get his paycheck so he can get back to what really matters to him?his fashion line, rap career, celebrity friends, and being a niche-famous sports star.?
In short, Garcia may not know it and may actually deny it vehemently, but he is just dying to be put out of his misery and placed on the path to where he really wants to be.
The question is whether Brandon Rios has enough left to be the guy to send Garcia to a full-time fashion designer/rap star career.
Rios has been through the wringer and just may be the oldest 31-year-old on the planet, but what we DO know about him is that he is all fire. He can be nullified by complex movement and has been slowed down by ring war after ring war, but few fighters are as tenacious as ?Bam Bam.? Unless Garcia somehow becomes a master mover, he?ll be there for Rios to push up against and will only go away if he is PUT away by a Garcia intent upon letting his hands go.
Actually, it?s a distinct possibility that a hard-charging Rios may bring out the best in Garcia, forcing him to fight or be battered to bits. The battle will be in Garcia?s will to fight vs. Rios? will to win.
For Rios, having fought only seven fairly uncomplicated rounds in over twenty-seven months will do him good and may add some strength to weary legs. It also may help him avoid the ?opponent? mindset he might?ve fallen into post-Pacquiao and Bradley losses.
Of course, Garcia SHOULD win and he is the infinitely fresher and more talented fighter, but winning in boxing isn?t always about being the better fighter. Sometimes disparity in desire and a perfect matching of strength to weakness, even if it?s on just one night, on one occasion, is enough to flip a script. I?m banking on this being Rios? one night, one occasion.
Is betting on Rios over Garcia a dumb call? Maybe. But it?s no dumber than when I won a bundle by betting on a shot-to-shit Vivian Harris to upset Jorge Paez Jr. in Paez?s own Mexican backyard. And a Rios bet is certainly not as bold as when I was crying foul on Antonio Margarito, insisting that someone check his gloves or wraps a couple of years before Brother Naazim Richardson actually did.
But even if I?m wrong about the outcome of Saturday?s fight, I?m not wrong about Garcia. The only thing the kid seems to enjoy about boxing these days is the ring walk. From the opening bell on, he?s disconnected and increasingly disinterested. If it?s not Rios who knocks him into the life he REALLY wants, it?ll be somebody else.
My money is riding on Rios being able to send Garcia on his way to a brighter, shinier life. I may regret this decision?especially given the sorry state of my finances?but boxing is all about taking a risk, right?
