It’s a beautiful thing when there is almost no doubt whatsoever which fighter in the world can break down any opponent that sniffs within thirty pounds of him better than any other fighter in the world. “Pound for Pound Champ,” they call it. Bang for your buck. The muscle, hustle and bustle per ounce of gravity.
Of course, size is only one factor that has to be equalized to come up with the best fighter in the world. Much like individual boxing matches and even three minute rounds, the pair of eyes observing the fight may focus on speed, energy, stylistic control and generalship or even grit and determination. Objective judges are about as easy to find as original Atari Game Systems.
Much like the difficult task of maintaining objectivity on the scorecards is to remain empirical when you stack a boxing hierarchy in the correct order. A champion can be judged on how hard he hits, how fast and intelligently he moves, victories, heart, lineage and even the men in his corner. All factors go into the consideration of a boxer’s ability.
The fighter recognized as the best by at least a heavy plurality of boxing experts in the world is none other than the now universally famous Floyd “Pretty Boy” Mayweather, JR. Mayweather, 38-0, 24 KO’s, ascended to the throne when he beat Arturo Gatti so embarrassingly that trainer Buddy McGirt threw in the towel after six lopsided rounds.
While Pretty Boy is the general consensus pick, there is a strong minority in the fisticuffs community that backs up reigning WBC International Super Featherweight Champion Manny Pacquiao, 45-3-2, 35 KO’s. Pacquiao’s rise to a minimum runner-up position in the rankings took place when he crushed Erik Morales in three rounds en route to an explosive victory in their epic trilogy. Both men fit the formula but the categories are weighed differently. Pacquiao has a great record, has fought all but surefire Hall of Fame fighters in six of his last nine fights and scored knockouts in four of those fights. Mayweather’s legend is in his undefeated record. His early bouts feature some impressive high action performances against spectacular fighters such as recently deceased Diego Corrales and Jose Luis Castillo. Since he has gained more business leverage and built his name into a trademark he has taken fights that are worth more money and are less physically taxing.
Coincidentally, both fights that catapulted these two men to the spotlight of boxing’s best were against opposition that was past its prime. Morales decided to let it all go in the rubber match with Pacquiao and was clearly outgunned in a short all-action brawl. Mayweather was clearly in another class from Gatti, whose body has been through more wars than the French Republic. Their paths to the top have dealt with styles that are entirely different.
Mayweather focuses on his defense and speed to stick and dance away from his opposition. Pacquiao is an offensive fighter with superb firepower in both hands and the look of a Wing Chun fighter such as Jackie Chan. His hands roll in perfect rhythm over the top of one another with spectacular accuracy.
While Mayweather’s strength is in his defensive maneuvers and Pacman focuses on offensive assaults inside the ropes, either fighter is accomplished on both ends of a boxing match. Floyd can easily transfer his body from his patented crab position and slip into any of a multitude of punched in a heavy arsenal of attacks. Pacman rolls his shoulders with punches and keeps his chin tucked as well or better than any active fighter today.
The positions of lineage stand at distinctly different spots on the timeline of each man’s career. To Mayweather’s disadvantage in the argument, the last time he faced any fighter not named Oscar De La Hoya that was near the top five in any division was 2002. If he ever truly wants to be known as the greatest fighter of all-time he may regret avoiding the best competition in five prime physical years of his career. Fighting major contenders such as WBA Kingpin Miguel Cotto, WBO Champ Antonio Margarito, Paul Williams and fellow pound for pound contender Shane Mosley would have cemented Floyd’s status as the current Pound for Pound Champ and sealed him into the Top 50 Fighters of to ever lace up gloves.
Pacquiao has fought all of the marquee names around him in the last five years and now awaits the charge of a new crop of fresh talent in the weight classes directly around him including WBA Featherweight Champion Chris John, WBO/WBA Lightweight Champion Juan Diaz and the dangerous WBA Super Featherweight Champion Edwin Valero, 22-0, 22KO’s. If management could ever come together and make a Juan Manuel Marquez-Manny Pacquiao rubber match, he would have a shot at beating each of the great lightweights of the last half decade. He would also be the favorite to win that fight.
The Numbers Game
After over a page and a half worth of article about all the factors that meet naked 20-20 vision, there is still no hint in this winding prose that delineates the real thing from a pretender. It is time to get down to brass tax.
The flat fact is that (Wins) + (Risk) + (Dominance) = Pound for Pound King. It’s pleasant for a fan to have a fighter that is willing to lay it all on the line in blood and guts fashion and it’s not bad to have belts. However, these two attributes/accomplishments are more indicators of the formula rather than full consideration of the formula itself. The WRD methodology points to the great names on the charts right now: Juan Manuel Marquez, Bernard Hopkins Pacquiao, and Mayweather.
It’s easy to represent the victories of a fighter in a numeric fashion. One of the few similarities between the fight game and the ball games is that they both involve the simplistic statistic known as a Winning Percentage. It is simply the percentage of games (or matches) won out of those that had a decisive ending. Risk involves the chance that the fighter had of losing the decisions that make up his win percentage. Namely, it is the inverse of winning percentage itself. The stat is not entirely perfect due to the mitigations of fighting a hometown, crooked officiating and other shady business. However, the Opposition Winning Percentage gives a good clue as to whether or not the wins achieved have made for a legitimate and credible record or an inflated feast on four figure chump fighters.
Dominance is a much more difficult variable to quantify. Knockouts are definitely a sign of dominance in a fighter. The percentage of Wins that come from KO’s is known as a KO Percentage (KO%). That beckons further questions and tangential relationships in this once tidy equation. Should a fighter not get more credit for an early KO than a late one? If that is the case, should a fourth round KO in a fight scheduled for eight rounds count more than one in a fight scheduled for ten? Should points be deducted for each the time that the fighter has been knocked out by the opposition? CompuBox has a statistic known as the Plus/Minus System in which the percentage of punches landed minus the percentage of punches taken derives a figure to rate general boxing ability. Is that a force in the decision of Dominance?
Books upon books could be written on the topic. In the interest of current research restrictions and deadlines, I am going to take a shortcut for the calculation and leave out the intricacies of punch track numbers that I can only guess. Dominance can crudely be represented as KO Percentage minus the percentage of times that the fighter has been knocked out by the opposition. We’ll call that Opponent’s KO Percentage.
Of course, the bulk of the worth for a fighter is his ability to come out of a fight as the better fighter and deserving the victory. While it is a piece of the puzzle, the fashion of victory can never be ranked quite as important as the victory itself. The process of weighing the number is only loosely conceptual rather than specific, making it difficult to decide the equalizing weight. For the purposes of this project, it will be .67 as important as either Wins or Risk. That leaves the equation as (Win%)+(Opp Win%)+.67(KO%-Opp KO%) = P4P Rating.
Mayweather is undefeated, good for a 1.000 Winning Percentage. The combined record of his opposition without draws is 966-181, an.842 Opponent’s Winning Percentage. He has a 63% KO Percentage and has obviously never been knocked out. Pacquiao’s Record of 44-3 is a near perfect .936 Winning Percentage. The record of his opposition is 1063-232, an .820 Opponent’s Winning Percentage. He holds a 78% KO Percentage and has only been knocked out twice in his career for a microscopic .04 Opponent’s KO Percentage.
And the Winner is…
The numbers run as follows:
Floyd Mayweather (1.000)+(.842)+.67(.63-0) = 2.2641
Manny Pacquiao (.936)+(.820)+.67(.78-.04) = 2.2518
Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a barnburner! It’s Mayweather by a statistical hair, largely due to the heavy weight (no pun intended) on Wins rather than Dominance. That subtle decision in this methodology happened to play a large part in the Pound for Pound Rankings. At this point in the statistical inquiry, the answer between the two fighters is Mayweather.
Can Manny Catch Up?
Manny’s still a solid number two fighter and is a little less than two years younger than Mayweather. He may face a problem down the road as he tries to move himself up the list. Pacman’s style makes for high octane fights and thrills for the fans. It also subjects him to taking more shots in a division range that features plenty of up and coming hitter. While fans might complain about Mayweather’s style and support the brutal efficiency of Pacquiao, it is that very difference that could prolong the career of Mayweather and keep him on top and known as the best fighter in the world.
Interesting Jabs
One heavy and admitted flaw in this methodology is that it places no weight on recent results as opposed to the older results in each man’s career. It would be worth the time and effort to figure out the ranks based solely on each man’s last ten fights but that might limit the proof to an insignificant sample size.
Similarly, the study also does not account for the results of the fights for the opposition of each fighter leading up to the match. When Manny Pacquiao faced Jorge Eliecer Julio. Julio was 44-3 overall but had lost two of his last four fights leading up to the match.
The average fighter that Mayweather faces has an estimated record of 19-4-1. The average fighter that Manny Pacquiao faces has an estimated record of 21-5-1. By Hockey Scoring (two points for a win, one for a tie and none for a loss) Pacquiao has the edge 2,178-1,967.
One of Manny Pacquiao’s only two knockout losses came against Medgoen Singsurat. The fight record at boxrec.com suggests that the blow was low.
Here are the WRD P4P Ratings of some of Boxrec’s Top Pound for Pound Fighters:
Jermain Taylor (1.000)+(.8434)+.67(.6538-0)=2.30106
Floyd Mayweather (1.000)+(.842)+.67(.63-0)=2.2641
Manny Pacquiao (.936)+(.820)+.67(.78-.04)=2.2518
Shane Mosley (.9166)+(.8088)+.67(.8409)=2.2888
Juan Manuel Marquez (.94)+(.807)+.67(.7447)=2.248
Rafael Marquez (.925)+(.749)+.67(.89-.075)=2.22
Bernard Hopkins (.922)+(.8034)+.67(.681)=2.1816
Winky Wright (.944)+(.738)+.67(.49)=2.0104
