Greetings Boxing Confidential readers!
Marvin Langer here.
I have taken a few months off to refine and further develop my computer boxing simulation. Late last year I presented a few simulated bouts here on Boxing Confidential. Actually it was a proposed heavyweight tournament simulation that was not finalized due to personal problems on my end.
My apologies.
When I contacted Mr. Michael Marley about returning to the site. He instructed me to scrap the heavyweight tournament and focus on one of the most anticipated fights in boxing. Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Manny Pacquiao II.
I have spent two weeks analyzing Pacquiao and Marquez’s fights and making profile grids for my computer simulator. Last night I reached a point where their computerized profiles were as accurate as possible, mimicking their strengths, weakness, ring tendencies and characteristics.
I followed to 100,000 simulations, set at 12 rounds with your standard championship rules. Here were the results:
Manny Pacquiao defeated Juan Manuel Marquez in 41,954 instances. 50% were knockout victories, 44% were decisions and 6% split decisions.
Juan Manuel Marquez defeated Manny Pacquiao defeated Manny Pacquiao in 40,857 instances. 71% of his victories were decisions, 14% knockouts, and 15% were split decisions.
The fight resulted in a draw or technical stoppage in 17,189 instances.
What does this test prove?
Well, nothing that we already do not know.
That the computer is pretty much inline with most human analysts. Nobody can confidentially pick a bout between Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez, they are that closely matched.
I hope that my computer is not the only place where this fight takes place. I hope that the powers that be at Golden Boy Promotions and Top Rank can meet halfway in negotiations and make this interesting match-up take place.
