Canelo Alvarez (47-1-1, 33 KO) vs. Liam Smith (23-0-1, 13 KO) isn?t the middleweight battle boxing fans would most like to see, but it?s a legitimate title scrap.
Tale of the TapeSaul Alvarez vs. Liam Smith 26 age 28 orthodox stance orthodox 5′ 9″ / 175cm height 176cm / 5′ 9?″ 70?? / 179cm reach N/A (33 KOs) 47 won 23 (13 KOs) (0 KOs) 1 lost 0 (0 KOs) 1 drawn 1 67% KO% 54%
Smith is a 28-year-old, undefeated fighter who is keen on keeping his WBO super welterweight title. He?s coming off a second-eound KO victory over Predrag Radosevic in June.
LONDON, ENGLAND ? JULY 20: Liam Smith chats to the media during the Canelo Alvarez vs Liam Smith boxing press conference at The Landmark Hotel on July 20, 2016 in London, England. (Photo by Charlie Crowhurst/Getty Images)
The win was Smith?s second successful defense of the WBO crown.
Alvarez is a former 154-pound champion who has about as large of a fan base as any active fighter in the world. That said, his reputation has been taking a beating because it looks as if he?s ducking lineal middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin. Recommended by Forbes Most Popular Photos: The Richest Person In Every State +242,322 Views Apple iOS 10 Has 25 Great Secret Features
In his last fight, Alvarez destroyed Amir Khan with a devastating right hand that left the Englishman out cold in the sixth round of their May bout. While the finish was spectacular, the victory did little for Alvarez?s perception.
Khan was widely viewed as a fighter competing two weight classes above his ideal division?not to mention he?s notoriously had a weak chin.
That fight was Alvarez?s final defense of his WBC middleweight crown before being stripped for refusing to face Golovkin. His title reign was a bit peculiar since he was the 160-pound champion despite never fighting at that weight.
In the fight against Smith, Alvarez is moving back to 154 pounds where he?s never been defeated. His lone defeat came at as catchweight against Floyd Mayweather Jr.
Here?s how Alvarez and Smith match up via statistical breakdown. The data was provided by BoxStat.
image provided by BoxStat
Alvarez would appear to have an advantage in every assessed category. He?s demonstrated more power and while he?s faced a few heavy hitters in his career, he?s never been in any real danger of being stopped.
Smith is a grinder who has shown only spots of power. He?s not difficult to hit, but he?s a sturdy competitor. One of the major questions facing him is can he withstand the power Alvarez brings to the ring.
Another piece of uncertainty facing Smith is how he?ll handle competing on a major stage away from his home country. Up until Saturday, every one of Smith?s 24 professional fights had taken place in the United Kingdom.
AT&T Center will be packed with pro-Alvarez fans hellbent on making Smith?s first pro visit to the United States is as uncomfortable as possible.
That said, the real pressure is on Alvarez. No one expects Smith to win. According to Odds Shark, Alvarez is a minus-1250 favorite. A loss or poor showing from Alvarez will bring out even more doubters and critics.
Despite Smith?s title being on the line, he?s playing with house money. He could see his stock rise in a losing effort.
Prediction
That?s the route he?ll have to take as it seems highly unlikely he?ll give Alvarez issues. Smith is not especially quick on his feet and his style is straight up and down.
Those types of opponents are made to order for Alvarez.
Smith holds a high guard and likes to come straight forward. Alvarez will take what he?s given early in the bout as he takes advantage of opportunities to bang Smith?s body.
By the fifth round, Smith will begin to wither under Alvarez?s increasingly aggressive onslaught. Around the seventh or eight round, either the doctor, corner or referee will call an end to the bout.
Whether we?ll see Canelo take the next step toward Golovkin is still a mystery.
