Canelo Alvarez entered 2016 as the unquestioned biggest draw in boxing. But he?s been mishandled so badly that Saturday?s bout against Liam ?Beefy? Smith figures to serve as a referendum on just how far he has fallen in the 10 months since he won the linear middleweight title.
Other than Golden Boy?s Oscar De La Hoya, no one expects the fight to do a significant pay-per-view figure.
According to HBO?s release, Alvarez?s victory last November over Miguel Cotto sold 930,000 pay-per-view units. Alvarez?s knockout of Amir Khan in May did about half of that. And it would be no shock if Saturday?s bout at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, is cut in half yet again.
?Texas is Canelo?s home away from home, and Canelo versus Smith will be a homecoming celebration for Canelo,? De La Hoya said in full spin mode before rattling off a short list of fights Alvarez won in San Antonio and Houston. ?So Cowboys Stadium is a stadium created for larger-than-life fighters, just like Canelo.?
The buzz, though, isn?t there for this fight, and a lot of the reason why is that Alvarez is better than a 12-1 favorite. Smith, who hails from Liverpool, England, is largely unknown and few in the U.S. are even aware of him.
Then, there is the spectacle of Gennady Golovkin hanging over the event.
De La Hoya skipped over Golovkin twice, pairing Alvarez with Khan in May and with Smith on Saturday.
The biggest boxing match fight that can be made and the only one that has a chance to threaten 1 million sales, is Alvarez-Golovkin.
De La Hoya decided last year after Alvarez beat Cotto he would milk it and try to make the Golovkin fight for September 2017.
But if they?d fought on Saturday, there is no reason why they couldn?t have fought in May 2017 and then again in September 2017. Alvarez-Golovkin is one of those matches that has the chance to be special. It?s a fierce rivalry, and both fighters own a fan-pleasing style.
An Alvarez-Golovkin fight would be one of the biggest stories in sports on Saturday. The Alvarez-Smith fight is going to be ignored by all but the most hard-core fans.
Smith, as promoter Frank Warren correctly pointed out, stepped up to face Canelo and went on the road to do it, even though he is the defending champion. He deserves credit for his willingness to compete against the best.
?My man, Liam, is coming to the other guy?s backyard,? Warren said. ?He?s coming to [Canelo?s] backyard, not to make up the numbers, but to defend his title and come back as a winner and hopefully Liam Smith?s name will be on everybody?s lips if he wins this fight.?
Maybe, but probably not. Boxing fans haven?t been clamoring for this fight, and Smith isn?t familiar to the U.S. market.
This, as De La Hoya described, is a bridge fight, and he?s relying on Alvarez?s drawing power to save the day. If Alvarez can outdraw Manny Pacquiao?s two fights in the stadium, that would be a step in the right direction.
But that?s a big if.
Pacquiao?s first fight at what was then known as Cowboys Stadium against Joshua Clottey drew an announced crowd of 50,994, but when it was reconciled, the paid attendance was 36,371 and total in the house was 41,843.
So it?s possible a higher attendance figure will be announced on Saturday than is actually in the building.
Pacquiao?s second fight there, against Antonio Margarito, drew a paid attendance of 30,437.
Alvarez is an elite fighter, but he has a tough task ahead of him, filling AT&T and selling pay-per-views for a fight (and fights) in which many boxing fans aren?t interested.
His reputation as a fighter won?t take a hit, because he?s aggressive and fearless and fans love that.
But if we take Oscar De La Hoya at his word and assume that Alvarez isn?t going to fight Golovkin until next September, and that Alvarez may fight again in December and then May, his reputation as a draw is on the line.
Salvaging that might be a challenge too big even for a star like Canelo Alvarez.
