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Op-Ed: Why Jessie Vargas KO plan wont work with Manny Pacquiao

Less than a week after Manny Pacquiao announced his decision to face Jessie Vargas in the ring on Nov. 5 at the Thomas and Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, the 27-year-old reigning WBO welterweight champion said he will go for a KO win to keep his title.

Vargas claimed that he is stronger now and more experienced. Aware of his low knockout rate based on his previous fights, Vargas looks forward to more sensational knockout wins. “Ever since my childhood, when Erik Morales lost to Manny Pacquiao, I said ‘I’ll fight him. I’m going to win and I will knock him out’ – and now we are so close that opportunity I feel very fortunate. The road has not been easy to get here,” Vargas said to Erika Montoya. Vargas’ statement could be part of the hype that is needed to promote the fight which will be shown on HBO pay-per-view as announced by Top Rank CEO Bob Arum, who promotes both Pacquiao and Vargas. But if he is serious with his fight strategy, he could be in danger of being knocked out by Pacquiao prematurely instead of him knocking out the Filipino star. Going for a KO win as his main fight strategy is a bad plan for Vargas, who has a poor KO rating. He would have a better chance if he goes for a win on points mainly because of his advantage in both height and reach. If Vargas plans to come forward on fight night to score a KO win, Pacquiao’s longtime trainer Freddie Roach would be the first to celebrate because Pacquiao would gladly engage him at close range or even in a toe-to-toe situation. Vargas did not say how exactly he will execute his KO plan but most likely he will do it in the early rounds to prevent Pacquiao from playing the aggressor’s role. If he does, he will regret it because Pacquiao is eager to score a KO win after long knockout holiday. While Vargas has the advantage over Pacquiao in both height and reach plus the fact that he is at least 10 years his junior, the Las Vegas-based Mexican-American fighter isn’t in Pacquiao’s level yet in terms of skill and experience. Pacquiao has fought 66 times since turning pro in 1995 against Vargas’ 28 fights as a pro. Pacquiao has a 58 percent KO rating while Vargas has only 36 percent. Pacquiao stands 5’6″ with 67″ reach while Vargas stands 5’10” with 71″ reach. HBO analyst Max Kellerman has god words for Vargas as a fine gentleman but he said Vargas isn’t a good match for Pacquiao saying Terence Crawford is the better fighter and a good match for Pacquiao. “Vargas is not a puncher. He was able to hurt Timothy Bradley and scored a knockout in his last fight. You see the 10 knockouts and he’s just not a puncher in either of the weight classes where he’s campaigned. Terence Crawford is not only a superior boxer but he can also bang if you come right at him.” Kellerman said. Kellerman is short of saying the Pacquiao-Bradley fight is a mismatch and looking at the disparity of the numbers in the tale of the tape, it appears that it is indeed a mismatch.

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