As May 5th draws nearer, the anticipation builds each day for boxing and non-boxing fans alike, as ?The World Awaits?. Many are speculating on not only the outcome but where this fight will rate in terms of the biggest of all time. It will most likely be the highest grossing non-heavyweight ever and may surpass the Tyson-Holyfield heavyweight record as well. But is it the biggest beyond financial terms?
This is certainly the biggest fight Floyd Mayweather has been in and probably Oscar De La Hoya too. De La Hoya has had so many big fights but consider the following: a) Chavez, Whittaker, and Camacho were passed their primes when De La Hoya fought them; b) Mosley was not a huge star outside the boxing world until his first fight with De La Hoya and prior to the second fight Mosley had been in something of a slump; c) Hopkins was simply bigger and stronger than De La Hoya and Oscar?s questionable win over Felix Strum did not help the magnitude of the Hopkins fight; d) the Vargas fight was diminished somewhat by his previous knockout loss to Felix Trinidad and Vargas is not the caliber of Mayweather.
Trinidad was De La Hoya biggest fight to date. Both were undefeated at the time and stars of the game, which accounts for the fight?s high pay-per-view numbers. However, one could argue that De La Hoya is more popular now than ever before and the hype surrounding the fight, Mayweather?s undefeated record, and De La Hoya?s quest for history makes it bigger than the Trinidad fight. Whether this fight is bigger than Hagler/Leonard I leave to speculation.
After the hype is over there will be a fight on May 5th and many hoping the fight lives up to it. I will submit that the fight will meet peoples? expectations for a while, that is until? De La Hoya knocks Mayweather out, probably in the 8th or 9th round. Yes, I?m predicating De La Hoya in dramatic fashion in a fight that should be quite close up to the point of the knock?very reminiscent of the De La Hoya/Hopkins fight in that the fight was close up to the point Hopkins stopped him. My reasons for believing this are many.
The single biggest reason I believe De La Hoya will stop him is the obvious, size. Similar to the Hopkins fight, the bigger, stronger guy should win. Despite being the favorite and having a tough chin, Mayweather is fighting arguable two classes above his best fighting weight. Because of his sublime talent he has excelled at welterweight but I believe fighting at 154 against this caliber of opponent will lead to his demise.
This brings me to my next point, the caliber of De La Hoya. Other than the Hopkins fight, a close one up until the KO, one could argue that De La Hoya has really never been decisively beaten (it could also be said a few of his wins were not decisive). We all know he?s fought the best his whole career and this I believe is Mayweather?s biggest weakness, his unwillingness to take risks and his presumed his lacking of punching power, something that may have more to do with an unwillingness to engage in wars than actual hitting power.
Mayweather has done everything to ensure he got this fight. That?s smart business. I do not blame him for fighting Baldomir and not trying to knock him out since fighting Margarito was riskier and not any more lucrative, and since attempting to knock Baldomir could have potentially jeopardized his chances of getting the De La Hoya fight. That being said, I thought he could have knocked Zab Judah out but decided to be cautious. To his credit Mayweather has beaten all the good fighters that have been put in front of him, but now he faces a great fighter of the likes he?s never seen before and his failure to take previous risks against the greater fighters will haunt him.
I am not convinced that Mayweather is a better fighter than De La Hoya. Yes, he is younger, fitter, faster, and has better defense. These things would mean a lot if the talent gap was wide, but it is not. If Mayweather is a better fighter, it?s not by much and I am fairly sure he is not good enough to avoid the potent left hook of De La Hoya for 12 rounds, which I do not believe Floyd can recover from. He will try to stick and move and probably have success for a while, but De La Hoya will cut the ring off and make him fight.
As far as De La Hoya goes, the only concern that is apparent is his Achilles heel ? stamina. The inactivity and once a year fighting schedule should not be an issue but it is known that De La Hoya traditionally fades in the last 3-4 rounds. De La Hoya?s strength as a fighter has never been conditioning but it will be important for De La Hoya to be extra fit against a guy who makes you work and miss as much as anyone and who?s defense causes a fighter to throw additional punches expending a lot of energy.
Lastly is motivation and what?s on the line. De La Hoya appears to be the more motivated fighter, as he is trying to make history. In some ways there is more on the line for him because he is probably finished if he loses (barring a less meaningful last fight in an attempt to go out on top) whereas Mayweather is younger, undefeated, and fighting out of his weight class and experts won?t hold it against him?so a loss does not set him back as much (similar to the De La Hoya/Hopkins fight) as he can go back to welterweight and mix it up with those stars.
Even if De La Hoya wins as I?ve predicted, where does he go from here? He can?t get the rematch with Trinidad, there is not enough to gain from fighting the rising, but not yet mega, junior and welterweight stars (Hatton, Cotto, Margarito, Paul Williams), and there is doubt that Oscar is interested in fighting or can beat Winky Wright, the only other star of his generation he hasn?t fought?a guy that is on a hot streak, has a cast-iron chin, is on everyone?s pound for pound list, is hard to look good against, has defense second to none, and is extremely motivated to fight De La Hoya.
Finally, ?The World Awaits? should De La Hoya riding off in the sunset. To beat the pound-for-pound king on Cinco De Mayo in Las Vegas in convincing fashion is a great way to go out and I think the way the storybook will close on this extraordinary fighter, the likes of which we?ll never see again. He is bigger than boxing and will not be denied his exit of dramatic nirvana.
