The buildup to the May 5 Floyd Mayweather-Oscar De La Hoya is so big I wonder if it?s just boxing?s way of compensating for the fact that there haven?t been any big fights in a while. What?s amazing is how little honest opinions have been given of the possible downside of this bout — that it could be another nail in boxing?s coffin instead of the booster shot the sport so desperately needs. Let?s not even consider the massed angst of De La Hoya rooters seeing their man get cuffed silly on Cinco De Mayo Weekend in the most non-Latin manner possible.
In the worst case scenario, say, something resembling Pretty Boy Floyd?s fights against Carlos Baldomir or many other opponents he beats when he?s hurt a hand or just wasn?t feeling fresh that day, it could be horrible for the sport. If you wonder why people are paying $40 for mixed martial arts, where you get 5 full fights — few of them less than 3-1 at the sports book and most of them violently entertaining — this could be the landmark case.
Or not. But let?s not get crazy and assume this will be Arturo Gatti-Micky Ward. Hell, those two playing cribbage could be more exciting than this, when contemplating all possible outcomes and weighing them on the Scale of Likely Outcomes.
Let?s face it. If they?re gonna break the sacred $50 line for this pay per view sticker — $54.95, thank you, matching Tyson-Lewis in PPV charge — what will be the equal and opposite reaction from fans if this is a dull fight? Or even a stinker?
I?m sure it?s lurking out there in fan?s minds, but let?s be honest and say it out loud, because honestly, I think more of my media colleagues need to be realistic that this could be a complete bomb. This is far more unlikely to unfold into a dull, awful bout, instead of some modern, higher-level version of Caveman Lee-Johnny LoCicero.
The baseline attraction, if you?re really into style matchups and not necessarily compelling action, is whether or not De La Hoya can assert his considerable power advantage, and how Floyd counter Oscar?s edge there, and in size. If The Golden One can?t find Floyd, it could be double-awful — Mayweather fighting as he did against Baldomir while De La Hoya can?t get a glove on him (Reyes gloves, thank you, which are markedly more effective when they connect).
I?m all for prefight buildup. But not when it sets a lot of people up for a real bad taste in their mouths should the affair be a stinker. And let?s do our due diligence here — while we?d all love to see something exciting happen (I?m sure somewhere Bob Arum will be rooting for a double knockout), it seems that a lot more clues point toward a bout not worth $54.95, or anywhere near it. Remember how much people hated watching Chris Byrd slap people around? Imagine how mad they would?ve been if they were dumb enough to pay this much to see it.
That?s the most likely outcome of this bout. It could only be a 30 percent chance. Maybe Oscar brings it. Maybe Floyd hurts a hand early while Oscar is bringing it. Maybe a harmonic convergence of factors occurs, but that?s usually what people think when only when they?re driving to Vegas — rarely when they?re leaving.
This is the downside of excessive optimism.
Lewis-Tyson was $54.95 because it represented the long-delayed clash of two heavyweight champs who were big punchers and natural rivals. This one could be a lot of things with how it plays out, but if the 1997 version of De La Hoya couldn?t catch an aging Pernell Whitaker, chasing Mayweather now does not suggest an easier assignment. Hope there?s at least one seminal moment, say, Oscar landing that monster left hook enough to let us see what Floyd can do when his proverbial eggs are scrambled. That might be worth the price.
I guess I just wanted to be the first to anticipate the bad taste, instead of after the fact. It?s always then that the naysayers seem comfortable coming out of the closet. It?s plenty warm outside, folks.
SHORT SHOTS After watching another mismandatory in Wladimir Klitschko-Ray Austin, The Corner has an idea. Why don?t Showtime and HBO issue a joint statement declaring they will not televise another heavyweight match until it?s a unification bout? Neither network loses a competitive edge in doing this, and it would throw a serious marker down to boxing?s power brokers. We?re going on four years without a defined heavyweight champ (Lennox Lewis, in case you forgot), and that?s the longest stint in boxing history without a king. Nobody?s gonna watch these farces if they aren?t on either one of these networks, and pay per view sales of your average ?mandatory? would be in the dozens, at best. Use market economics and leverage to snuff this stuff out of existence, at least until there?s a unified champ?.who can get back to dealing with three or four belts and their accompanying mandatory?in that case, maybe a whole new paradigm must be created from scratch.
Hey, the British have lived a long time without a king, seeing as how the Queen seems to share DNA with Keith Richards. There?s no reason we have to live the same way, forever in waiting.
No matter how long clever press releases I get in the old in-box, I?m still aghast at how much Sugar Ray Leonard is pumping up Peter Manfredo?s chances against Joe Calzaghe April 7. Ray?s quotes in these pressers are always optimistic, but if Calzaghe is upset by Manfredo, I?ll write my next ten pieces here without using the letter ?e?.
I actually did that once and considered it a great literary feat, seeing as how it took five hours to knock out five hundred words (try it sometime). Calzaghe is fighting on his home turf of Wales, to boot, which gives Manfredo about as much chance as the Iraqi Republican guard had against Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf. Or did I miss something in seeing Manfredo lose twice to Sergio Mora, a guy who couldn?t bust an egg with a hammer? Calzaghe wins that fight merely by showing up and breathing heavy. Manfredo isn?t a legit world title challenger. He ain?t even Robbie Sims, much less Mustafa Hamsho.
And you know you?re getting on in your boxing writing career when you are the smoking gun in your own murder mystery.
Recently I called Max?s Tom Gerbasi, who edits the site along with Dougie Fischer. Major Tom is always down for compelling story ideas, and coming into the hotly anticipated Juan Manuel Marquez-Marco Antonio Barrera bout, why not do historical rating of Latin rivalries? He liked it and issued the green light.
Well, the old memory isn?t as sharp as it used to be — it used to be a point of pride to write these heavy historical screeds, replete with dates and results, without referring to valuable databases such as those located at boxrec and cyberboxingzone.com. Old Sparky here used to remember dates, times and results like Rain Man. But it gets harder to call up this stuff as time passes on. So instead, your humble columnist googled ?Latin Rivalries? with ?boxing? and found?..the article already written.
