Manny Pacquiao will surely beat Timothy Bradley when the two face each other in Las Vegas and on HBO pay-per-view on Saturday. Of that, I can be sure ? unless, of course, you read something that says the exact opposite.
The reasons why are simple to ascertain, as explained by a number of boxers who made predictions for the fight: Pacquiao (57-6-2, 38 knockouts) easily beat Bradley (33-1-1, 13 KOs) by unanimous decision during their second fight two years ago, and during their first fight in 2012, it seemed as though the only three people who believed Bradley was the victor were the judges who sat ringside and gave him the highly-controversial unanimous decision.
Though the records don?t say so, Pacquiao, in reality, has won the vast majority of the 24 rounds they?ve fought thus far. Which is why the fact they?re fighting for the third time is a little strange. It?s a fight that most fans don?t seem to want ? Terence Crawford would have been a much better selection for Pacquiao ? and it?ll be surprising if this fight does well on pay-per-view.
But whomever pays to watch this fight will eventually see what?s sure to happen: Pacquiao beating Bradley. Here are three reasons why.
1. Pacquiao is simply a better fighter: In their primes, there?s little doubt that Pacquiao would be a sturdy favorite against Bradley (as it is, oddsmakers still like Pacquiao at about 2/1). Don?t get me wrong: Bradley is a wonderful fighter, as he?s shown over and over, and, by all accounts, he appears to be a genuinely nice human being. But Pacquiao is a special fighter, the kind of pugilist that?s seen only once or twice a generation. Even though Pacquiao is 37 and Bradley is 32, Pacquiao still simply has more skills than Bradley ? always has and always will.
2. We could see the Pacquiao of old and not an old Pacquiao: There has been some talk from boxing observers about how Pacquiao ? who is guaranteed to make $20 million from this fight ? lately hasn?t been the aggressive tour de force in the boxing ring that he was when he emerged on the mainstream boxing scene 13 years ago. After all, he?s only 3-3 in his last six fights, and at the age of 37, he?s nearly ancient for an elite welterweight. But Pacquiao also says this is the final fight of his career ? though there are plenty of people who doubt that ? and he almost assuredly will try to make one final statement against the fresher Bradley. Pacquiao hasn?t scored a knockout victory since 2009, but he likely will try his best to stop Bradley before the end of the 12th round. ?He?s hitting really hard; maybe this is his last one,? Pacquiao?s trainer, Freddie Roach, told HBO. ?He?s a little more excited in sparring and getting a little more vicious ? a little meaner than he has in the past. I like what I see.?
3. Bradley sometimes gets away from his own gameplan: And that wouldn?t necessarily bode well for him. As the HBO boxing podcast points out, Bradley actually threw more punches than Pacquiao in both of their previous fights, and that played into Pacquiao?s strength as a counterpuncher.
Bradley got himself into trouble against Jesse Vargas last June when, despite dominating his opponent for the vast majority of the fight, he nearly was knocked out in the final round and was fortunate to survive (referee Pat Russell accidently separated them a few seconds before the round was supposed to end).
And though his fight with Ruslan Provodnikov in 2013 was one of the most entertaining of the year, Bradley could have used more of his boxing skills instead of getting into a dangerous brawl. In other words: fight a little smarter, get hit a little less. But thus far, Bradley hasn?t shown he?s willing to do that, and that discipline won?t start Saturday vs. Pacquiao.
All of which means Pacquiao certainly will win. Unless the EXACT OPPOSITE happens.
