(LAS VEGAS) Leave it to Freddie Roach to get right to the point. “Canelo trained in my gym for three fights… He’s not the most dedicated fighter.” Roach went on to explain recently in Los Angeles at his famed Wild Card Gym, that Canelo Alvarez– though dangerous, has a problem with conditioning, and therefore, should break down opposite WBC middleweight champion Miguel Cotto.
“I’m not sure how durable he is. I think he can be broke down. I think he fatigues in the middle rounds quite often in most of his fights. He’s very good early and I think in the later rounds he fades a little bit,” bottom-lined Roach. “I think by the 7th or 8th round he should be ready to go.”
Its hard to go against the logic and wisdom of this era’s Eddie Futch when Canelo is put under a microscope. The young Mexican superstar was put in a cocoon against Floyd Mayweather in September 2013 before being spun like cotton, so Cotto (Roach figures), should be able to turn the burgeoning icon into something like a cheap commemorative t-shirt for the event. Cotto faired much better against Mayweather just a year prior in May 2012, turning Floyd’s face into a swollen bloody mess while still losing a clear UD to a “Pretty Boy Floyd” version of “Money”.
Roach saw that against Mayweather, Canelo’s footwork is a little stiff and that he grew frustrated when he couldn’t set and time traps. It was something Austin Trout used to great effect a year prior in an April 2013 losing effort against Canelo. But this was after demonstrating much of the same technique he used to spray paint Miguel Cotto himself via UD in December 2012 (more on that in a moment). Then we point to another common opponent they’ve shared, the great Shane Mosley, it reveals a durability issue which may prove very relevant when determining the outcome of this fight.
BREAKDOWN AND ANALYSIS
When looking at this fight, we’re trying to pick up clues based on who they’ve both fought and how they’ve handled certain fighters at different weight classes. Canelo fought and beat a fairly long in the tooth Mosley in May 2012. The strategy of Nazim Richardson in that fight was to sap the endurance of Alvarez with movement and volume before unleashing heavy power. But Mosley was fighting Canelo as a super welterweight and was never able to impose himself on Alvarez or avoid having to fight defensively- something he didn’t prefer. In his own November 2007 fight with Cotto, fought at welterweight, Mosley turned a fairly even action fight into one of survival for the younger Cotto. The Puerto Rican legend was forced to fallback against Mosley in the later rounds before getting a narrow points win. From this view, it looked like a Mosley win.
Alvarez did fade down the stretch against Trout, but was facing a more mobile fighter than he’d faced before at 154, and faired much better in a similar bout with Erislandy Lara in July 2014. Cotto, it’s worth noting, unloaded on Trout early in their super welterweight bout and was not able to hurt him. It inspired Trout to turn up the intensity and shutout a badly faded Cotto down the stretch. Again, that fight took place in December 2012, a few months before Canelo would face Trout himself. If we’re to look at things based on what they’ve done over the past three years since, it would seem Cotto has the edge because of greater name recognition. Then again, looks can be deceiving and leave us prisoners of the moment.
