LAS VEGAS — For years, a Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao fight has been boxing’s dream matchup. But for one, Saturday’s result figures to be professionally nightmarish.
Here are five keys for Mayweather to make sure it isn’t him:
1. Right down the pike For a conventional fighter against a left-hander, everything flips. The right hand serves not only as a power punch, but also in much the same role as a jab typically would. That jab to the body Mayweather likes to use to keep attacking opponents off balance becomes a right to the body against a southpaw. The jab lead becomes a left hook or right hand instead. Mayweather long has proven himself capable of landing pot-shot right leads even against conventional opponents, against whom it should be more difficult to land and more risky to throw because it travels so far. But against southpaws, with both fighters’ jabs out front, the lead right becomes a critical tool, both to the head and body. Mayweather’s trademark shoulder roll also figures to go back into his bag of tricks for this fight, unless he is hurt and needs to tuck his chin behind his left shoulder with his right glove high, because it neutralizes the right hand.
2. Get off then get out Pacquiao generally is considered the heavier-handed opponent and Mayweather probably would be best advised not to be drawn into a matchup in which both fighters are exchanging three-punch and four-punch combinations. That kind of firefight is inevitable at some point, but the more it happens, the more it mitigates the technically superior boxer’s advantages. It puts Mayweather at greater risk of getting caught with something big late in an exchange. Two punches and get out for Mayweather, especially early in the fight, when Pacquiao is at his most dangerous. If Mayweather puts in his work in the early rounds, there will be times to let his hands fly later.
Keys to Floyd Mayweather beating Manny Pacquiao MLive.com’s David Mayo and Josh Slagter break down what Mayweather must do to remain unbeaten Saturday night. 3. Don’t forget to bait the hook Plenty of boxing cognoscenti advocate for the left-hook lead as an even more important punch than the right-cross lead for a conventional fighter against a left-handed opponent. The hook still is the power punch closest to the opponent, and Pacquiao’s right hook, while maybe a little better than people give him credit for, is nowhere near as lethal as his left cross. Mayweather doesn’t want to get caught exchanging crosses. But if he gets into a firefight exchange on the other side, swapping hooks, he might like the results, because his will arrive first more often than not. Mayweather won’t want to get caught much throwing the hook to the body, and leaving himself open and vulnerable to southpaw power. But the hook as a lead upstairs, or as the second punch in a combination behind the right lead? A major key.
4. Create a trap door Pacquiao will lunge with his head in front of his body. He will expose himself and get out of position to do much of anything, either offensively or defensively. He’s an aggressive fighter and he built his legend that way. It’s also precisely the style a master boxer like Mayweather lives to see. The proverb about styles making fights is unequivocally true, and this is the style clash everyone wants to see, the fastball hitter Pacquiao against the junkball pitcher Mayweather. There will be times that this fight almost mixes judo with boxing as Mayweather makes Pacquiao’s momentum work against him. Once Mayweather figures out when those lunges are coming, that’s when one of the best counterpunchers in boxing history hopes to do damage and turn the fight in his favor. One way to do it: Feint the feinter. Pacquiao is known for his feints. Mayweather isn’t bad at it either, and could draw Pacquiao out of position that way.
5. Sense when to flip it Mayweather could win the fight solely by counterpunching if he lures Pacquiao into something. But he probably can’t win a decision that way. The entire fight probably comes down to two things — at what point does Mayweather get Pacquiao timed, and who spends more of the fight as the aggressor on the lead? The answer to the first question factors largely into the second. If Pacquiao never has his aggression halted, he wins the fight. That’s his blueprint. But if Mayweather should get Pacquiao timed, it opens the window for him to impose his will and become the stalker. If and when that happens probably determines the winner of the fight. Mayweather can’t spend a lot of time on the ropes, letting Pacquiao lead and get in rhythm. He has to take the play away and he has to do it before the middle rounds, by stinging Pacquiao, by discouraging him with defense and return fire, and/or by using his inborn ability to discern an opponent’s greatest strength and nullify it. If he doesn’t deter the whirlwind, slow down the pace, and become the aggressor by mid-fight, his unbeaten record is in trouble.
