Odds have settled in at +170 Pacquiao, -210 Mayweather, a fight that will almost certainly attract record action before it?s over. But go to the Bovada offshore site and you?ll find a glitch in these odds that favors Pacquiao bettors.
Yes, if you bet Manny to win on a straight wager you can earn $170 for your $100. But look at the propositions on a Pacquiao victory. There the house pays +400 for a stoppage and +400 for a win by decision.
If he wins, it will be by one of those two avenues, correct? So if you take that $100 and instead of putting it on a Pacquiao victory you place $50 on a stoppage and $50 on a decision, of course you will lose one of those bets even if Pacquiao wins. But the other $50 wager will pay you $200. Consequently, you earn $200 for your $100 action, not the $170 offered by the straight-up bet.
These are the kinds of idiosyncrasies smart players look for. You have to grab them while they?re there, because they tend to have a short shelf life. But notice that if Mayweather wins, you won?t look so clever.
A distance fight is still favored by -300 to +230 over a stoppage. That?s to be expected when you have two fighters who?ve scored only three stoppages in their last 20 outings.
Note also that a stoppage by Mayweather is +550 versus +400 for an early Pacquiao victory. Another anomaly: when it comes to a knockout, the favorite (Mayweather) isn?t favored. Pacquiao is.
Looking for a close fight and can?t decide who will pull out the victory? You?re not alone. Well, you could look for a draw. It pays 16-1.
In other interesting situations that pop up on the Bovada board, look at light heavyweights Adonis Stevenson versus Sako Bika Saturday in Quebec City.
Not surprisingly, it?s -1600 Stevenson and +800 Bika. But a stoppage by Stevenson, the hometown favorite, is favored at -150. A Stevenson win by decision actually pays a premium at +140. That?s how certain bettors are that Bika, 32-6-3 (21 KOs), won?t make it to the final bell against a knockout artist who?s 25-1 (21 KOs).
But over on 5Dimes, another offshore site, you can get +150 betting the bout won?t make it past 7 and 1/2 rounds. I find that an intriguing bet. The over is -170.
On April 11, gamblers give Irish southpaw Andy Lee only a puncher?s chance against Peter ?Kid Chocolate? Quillin in Brooklyn, -325 Quillin, to +250 Lee.
Lots of bettors can?t make up their minds on what promises to be an action-filled tussle April 18 between junior welter powerhouses Lucas Matthysse, -140, and Ruslan Provodnkiov, +110 in Verona, New York.
Look at Vasyl Lomochenko, a staggering -2500 versus Gamalier Rodriguez, +1000 on the Mayweather-Pacquiao undercard at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. At 5dimes it?s +1900, -3800. When the spread is that wide, it indicates the house doesn?t really want the action, but will grudgingly book your bet. Within those odds is one of the looniest bets on the board. Would you really be willing to risk $3,800 just to win $100 on Lomachenko? But if you do want to bet Rodriguez, clearly 5dimes is the place to do it.
Finally we come to the 5dimes view of Willie Monroe versus crushing middleweight phenom Gennady Golovkin May 16 in Inglewood, California. It?s +2500 Monroe versus -7500 Golovkin. Now there?s a site that doesn?t want to bet against Triple G. A crazier wager you can?t find. Yes, Triple G is a lock, but you?ve still got to be nuts to risk $7,500 to win a mere $100.
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