MANILA, Philippines – Oddsmakers are laying a 1-to-4 betting line on Manny Pacquiao knocking out Floyd Mayweather Jr. in their WBC/WBA/WBO unification welterweight title fight in Las Vegas this Saturday (Sunday morning, Manila time) so that a $100 wager on the Filipino scoring a stoppage earns $400. A win by Pacquiao on points will rake in $375 on a $100 bet while a decision by Mayweather will gain $100 on a $140 stake.
Because of Mayweather?s granite chin and stonewall defense, the speculation is it?s unlikely for Pacquiao to win inside the distance. Besides, Pacquiao hasn?t stopped an opponent since Miguel Cotto in 2009 and that was nine fights ago. The reading is Pacquiao, who appears to be a natural 140-pounder, is unable to elevate his power against bigger welterweights. He dropped Cotto twice, battered Antonio Margarito and sent Chris Algieri to the canvas six times but none took the full count.
Mayweather is expected to weigh around 160 pounds when the bell rings to start the Fight of the Century. While there is a dictum that ?the bigger they are, the harder they fall,? Mayweather may be able to take Pacquiao?s sock because he packs more heft. Besides, he?s known for being hard to hit.
In compiling a 47-0 record, Mayweather has been officially docked only one knockdown and that was a fluke. In 2001, referee Dale Grable called a knockdown on Mayweather after he hurt his hand and lowered it on the canvas in the sixth round. Mayweather was neither staggered or groggy. He went on to score a unanimous 12-round decision over Hernandez. But in 2006, Mayweather deserved to take a mandatory eight-count after he lunged at Zab Judah and stumbled backwards after taking a right to the temple from the southpaw. Mayweather lost his balance and put his right hand on the canvas to keep steady. Referee Richard Steele ignored it and ruled it a slip. Mayweather weathered the storm and won on points.
There were several occasions when Mayweather was wobbled. He was hurt by DeMarcus Corley, a southpaw like Judah, flustered by Sugar Shane Mosley and bombarded by Jose Luis Castillo. But Mayweather is tough as nails. He?s durable and sturdy. It?s not only that he can take a punch, it?s also his defense making it difficult for opponents to land a solid shot.
Mayweather?s age, however, could prove to be a drawback. If his legs aren?t the same as they used to be, it may be easier for Pacquiao to connect on Mayweather. Ron Borges of The Ring Magazine recently reported that the Wall Street Journal conducted a study on Mayweather?s 11 fights before his first encounter with Marcos Maidana last May. The research showed that Mayweather took 221 punches from Maidana or nearly 100 more than any opponent over the past eight years. Borges said, ?a more flat-footed Mayweather has been hit more and more in his last four fights, each opponent landing over 100 punches inside his once-impregnable defense.? Dean’s Corner ( Article MRec ), pagematch: 1, sectionmatch: 1
The signs of slippage were apparent in Mayweather?s two fights against Maidana last year. In the first bout, Mayweather landed 230 or 426 total punches and 178 of 274 power shots. In the second, he connected only 166 of 326 total punches and 102 of 177 power shots. Within a span of five months against the same opponent, Mayweather threw 100 fewer punches and landed 64 less.
Pacquiao?s business manager Eric Pineda recently said that based on a reliable source, Mayweather took a shot to the body and went down in a sparring session with Judah. Mayweather has denied it but Pineda said a source confirmed the knockdown. If true, the incident only affirms Mayweather?s difficulty in fighting southpaws. He has fought only eight lefthanders in 47 bouts and at least four gave him problems.
?Pineda said if Mayweather stands his ground and engages, he could lose by knockout. Pineda is convinced that Mayweather will fold up once he tastes the sting of Pacquiao?s blows. ?No mercy,? said Pineda. ?Manny?s going for a knockout. But if Mayweather runs, it?ll go 12 rounds with Manny winning the decision.?
Mayweather?s father and trainer Floyd Sr. said he?s not worried about Pacquiao because ?he?s the most hittable man in the world.? When Mayweather was promoted by Bob Arum, his father put the word out to avoid southpaws. But now, Floyd Sr. said Pacquiao is ?one of the easiest damn southpaws to fight?Floyd can definitely outthink him, Floyd ?s going to hit him so easy, Floyd will dominate him bad, he?ll paralyze him, Floyd?s got a good chance of knocking him out.?
