The opponent he faces tonight is a capable and courageous one, but with all due respect to Chris Algieri, the fight the boxing world wants to see is Manny Pacquiao taking on Floyd Mayweather.
Pacquiao against Mayweather would quite likely be the richest fight in boxing history. Although Pacquiao is promoted by HBO and Mayweather by Showtime, Pacquaio?s promoter, Bob Arum, doesn?t see this as an obstacle to the fight being made. It is Arum?s understanding that the two giant U.S. subscription TV networks would work together to make the fight happen. That is to say, each network would broadcast the event on pay-per-view and fans could choose which network coverage they wished to watch.
This happened, of course, when HBO?s Lennox Lewis fought Showtime?s Mike Tyson 12 years ago.
(Back in 1996, when HBO?s Oscar De La Hoya fought Showtime?s Julio Cesar Chavez, Bob Arum, on behalf of De La Hoya, and Don King, Chavez?s promoter, agreed that the fight would be shown the ?old-fashioned? way on closed-circuit in cinemas and sports arenas across North America, with the rights to the delayed broadcast going to the highest bidder.)
?Based on the willingness of both networks to do a Pacquiao-Mayweather fight as I understand it from them, they have agreed on a format to do it,? Arum told South China Morning Post in September. ?So that major obstacle has been cleared away. They have agreed on the highest level.?
Arum believes, in fact, that the only obstacle to the megafight is Mayweather?s reluctance.
Oh, yes, there is one other potential obstacle to be overcome, and that is Chris Algieri. If Pacquiao loses this fight, which will be his second in Macau, the Mayweather fight won?t be happening ? which some believe would be perfectly fine with Mayweather.
Algieri is a huge underdog in the betting, but the personable young man from Long Island, NY, might be a rather more difficult proposition for Pacquiao than the odds indicate.
For a start, Algieri is undefeated, having won 20 bouts in a row, and, as is always the case with an unbeaten boxer, we can?t be sure of the level he will reach.
Algieri is the challenger in this bout for Pacquaio?s WBO welterweight title, but he is a champion in his own right, as the WBO junior welterweight titleholder.
Although Algieri is moving up in weight, he believes he is naturally much bigger than Pacquiao ? and Friday?s weigh-in provided confirmation. At 5ft 10ins, Algieri towered over Pacquiao and looked two weight divisions the bigger man.
Algieri ? a kickboxing champion before he took up boxing ? is quick and athletic, and he has an excellent jab. He showed grit when surviving two first-round knockdowns and a severely swollen eye to defeat Ruslan Provodnikov in June ? an unexpected victory that earned him the fight with Pacquiao.
Perhaps Algieri?s strongest point of all, though, is his confidence. Algieri really believes that he is going to win this fight. You can tell it in his voice ? just as Algieri would tell interviewers that he was very sure that he would upset the odds against Provodnikov, so he avers that he has the beating of Pacquiao.
?I want to go in there and win,? Algieri told me in an interview published in Boxing Monthly. ?That really, I think, is the difference between me and some of the other guys who?ve got their shot with Manny.?
Algieri is 30, and he makes it clear that he doesn?t plan to have a long career in boxing. He asked his promoter, Joe DeGuardia, to get him the tougher, bigger-paying fights, rather than to keep promoting him in experience-building, lower-level bouts. The result is that, this year, Algieri surged into prominence, beating the tough and talented Emmanuel Taylor comfortably on points in February and then boxing ? and sometimes banging ? his way to victory over Provodnikov.
Although Algieri has stopped only eight opponents, he was jolting back Provodnikov?s head with left jabs during the fight, and as tough as Provodnikov is, the heavy-handed fighter from Siberia looked to me as if he was feeling the shots ? he wasn?t able simply to walk through Algieri. ?Just because I don?t have a high knockout ratio doesn?t mean that I don?t hit hard,? Algieri told me.
Yet while Algieri has stepped up to a progressively higher level in each of his last two fights, he is reaching for the stars against Pacquaio.
Pacquiao will turn 36 next month, but he doesn?t seem to be slowing down. Although knocked out in the sixth round by Juan Manuel Marquez in December 2012, Pacquiao was actually fighting perhaps his best fight against Marquez in the fourth installment of their rivalry until running into a beautifully timed right-hand counter. Pacquiao was coming on so strongly in the fifth and sixth rounds that I had the impression that Marquez, blood streaming from his nose, might struggle to get through the 12 rounds. Yet in boxing, fortunes can change in an instant, and Marquez?s right-hand blast brought Pacquiao?s charge to a sudden and dramatic halt.
There were no evident lingering effects from that defeat, though, when Pacquiao outclassed Brandon Rios, and Pacquiao seemed to me to be back to his best ? or very near it ? when he vanquished Timothy Bradley in their rematch.
We keep hearing about Pacquiao?s many distractions, but when it comes time to get ready for a fight Pacquiao is a true professional: He prepares himself to win. Pacquiao?s trainer, Freddie Roach, sees Pacquiao as simply being too good, and too versatile, for Algieri. Roach was in Ruslan Provodnikov?s corner when Algieri beat the Russian fighter, whom Roach trains. Provodnikov, Roach feels, made the mistake of looking for a one-punch KO after his big first round.
Certainly, Pacquiao?s speed and his rapid punching from the southpaw stance are likely to give Algieri problems.
Algieri?s left jab, his height and reach, and his movement, can keep him in the fight, but he?s never faced the sort of pressure that Pacquiao will be bringing to bear.
It?s nothing unusual for Pacquaio to fight boxers taller than himself ? he easily beat Joshua Clottey and Antonio Margarito, for instance.
Algieri had a clear speed advantage in his fights with Emmanuel Taylor and Provodnikov, but he might find Pacquiao closing the distance and hitting him before he quite realises what?s happening.
Algieri might be able to weather some early storms and hold off Pacquiao with the jab, but for Algieri to win, one feels, he will have to stand his ground at some point and try to hurt Pacquiao and slow him down with the left hook and left uppercut ? the left is Algieri?s power hand ? and the problem here is that if Algieri is in front of Pacquiao he?s going to be at risk of getting hit flush by the Filipino fighter?s jolting left hands. Pacquiao hasn?t stopped an opponent since halting Miguel Cotto in the last round five years ago, but he?s been meeting durable and in some cases naturally bigger opponents.
Perhaps, at this fight?s catchweight of 144lbs, against a fighter who previously boxed in the junior welterweight division, we?ll see Pacquiao producing an explosive performance.
If this is the case ? if Pacquiao can get Algieri out of the fight inside the distance ? I believe that the pressure will be on Mayweather as never before to come to terms for a fight with Pacquiao, because the fight is getting perilously close to the now-or-never stage.
Algieri is assuredly coming to win, and he does have excellent boxing skills, but I don?t see him as having the big-fight experience, or quite the punching power or quite the all-around fighting qualities necessary to pull off what would be the upset of the year ? and one of the biggest in boxing history. I believe this will be a long, difficult fight for Pacquiao, but I think that he will eventually start to overwhelm Algieri to force the referee?s intervention some time in the last four rounds.
I?m expecting a commendable performance from Algieri but a commanding one from Pacquiao.
This is an updated version of a preview that originally appeared in Boxing Monthly.
