That old Mexican warlord Erik Morales goes to the well once more this weekend when he meets Filipino buzz-saw Manny Pacquiao in Las Vegas.
There will be no world title on the line at the Thomas & Mack Centre, just two of boxing’s best little men duking it out for a third and final time.
Their series is evenly poised at one win apiece at this point, so something has to give.
The general consensus is that Pacquiao will be too fast, too fresh and too good for the 2006 version of ‘El Terrible’, but the result is far from a formality.
Morales won their first fight in March of 2003 by dictating the pace of the contest and keeping the marauding Filipino at bay with his stinging jab.
However when they met again back in January Morales faded badly after a bright start and he simply couldn’t keep up with the Pac Man’s frenetic pace.
He was stopped in 10, and the enduring image of that night was of a helpless and totally exhausted Morales slumped on the canvas trying to make sense of it all.
Pacquiao was at his relentless best that night and he seems to have endless reserves of energy.
He is one of the most exciting fighters in the world right now and a national icon in his homeland.
The big talking point ahead of this one has been weight, and more specifically Morales’ ability to make 9st 4lbs.
He admitted in January that he was finding it nigh on impossible to drag his ample frame inside the super-featherweight limit, and had wanted this fight to take place at catchweight.
Pacquiao’s people wouldn’t hear of it though, and it’s actually been written into the contract that Morales will have to pay Pacquiao $500,000 for every pound he comes in over.
Happily the word is Morales has trained diligently for this one and has taken the weight off sensibly, but the burning question is, what has it taken out of him?
He is only 30 but the man from Tijuana has been in so many wars over the years (this will be his 53rd pro bout).
Many are predicting this will be a fight too far, but there is an old Mexican proverb which states: ‘Only the spoon knows what is stirring in the pot’.
Morales is nobody’s fool and I’m convinced that he wouldn’t have taken this fight on unless he was confident of beating Pacquiao again.
He’ll know better than anyone just how much he has left in the pot so to speak, and my guess is it’s plenty.
However I just don’t see it being enough.
He was troubled by Pacquiao’s southpaw style in both fights and even if he’s at his best in Vegas I just feel he’ll come up short.
Pacquiao fights at a pace few can live with but he’s much more than just a wild-swinging brawler these days.
Freddie Roach has brought him on as a boxer and he will be looking to get inside Morales’ snaking jab at every opportunity.
He has fought eight current or past world champions and is 6-1-1 (the one defeat of course coming against Morales).
Morales is the naturally bigger man but it’s worth remembering he’s lost three of his last four and will have been inactive for 298 days.
I see Morales having some success with the jab early on and he could well establish an early lead.
However look for Pacquiaoto to ‘come on’ as the fight progresses, wearing his man down with his power and tenacious work rate.
Pacquiao is 4/9 to win the fight, but I reckon Morales will go out on his shield in this one, losing a hard fought (but unanimous decision).
The Pacquiao points win is available at 2/1 and looks the way to go, regardless of promoter Bob Arum’s curious boast this week that “it’s not a sin to bet on Morales”.
