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Philippines, 20 Mar 2010 |
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Brian's Boxing Mailbag (Manny Pacquiao Victory Bag) By Brian Wilbur PhilBoxing.com Tue, 17 Nov 2009 Manny Pacquiao had very few doubters heading into his big welterweight title clash against Miguel Cotto. Those who had doubted Pacquiao's ability to fight at the higher weight classes were convinced with his shockingly dominant wins over Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton. You can only be proven wrong so many times by the same fighter before you start to change your outlook. That was the case as Manny was set to take on one of the strongest, best, and most dominant welterweights of his era, Miguel Cotto. The fact that Pacquiao was almost a 3 to 1 favorite had nothing to do with Cotto being an easy opponent. Welterweight is widely considered to be best and deepest division in boxing and Cotto was among the elite of that division. The reason for the skewed odds had to do with the immense respect that the boxing public has for Pacquiao's ability. Manny seems to be getting better as he moves up in weight, which is an absurd but frighteningly true concept. Pacquiao was challenged at times against Cotto on Saturday. The first round must have made Pacfans across the world a bit nervous. However, Manny's precision punching and superior stamina allowed him to pull away after the 8th round to dominate the rest of the way, concluding the show by scoring a 12th round TKO. Manny scored a definitive victory over arguably the best opponent of his career (considering weight) and scoring what might be the best win of an already stellar record. In this week's mailbag the fans voices their thoughts on the great Manny Pacquiao, his most recent win, and look towards the future to a potential fight with Floyd Mayweather. We also touch on Z Gorres, preview next week's fight between Andre Ward and Mikkel Kessler, and Juanma Lopez. Please enjoy and be sure to send me your emails to be used for next week's mailbag. What Went Wrong For Cotto Hey Brian, again I am writing opinions and questions about the last super fight of 2009: The Firepower, the fight really went one sided after round 1 and Pacquiao was just hitting Cotto at will. What do you think went wrong for Cotto? Is Margarito the one to blame here as the haters will surely think? I watched the fight live and in the first 2 rounds it was an evenly contested match and then PacMan just blitz the hell out of Cotto. Even Junito admitted after the fight that Pacquiao is the best fighter he has faced and one of the all time. Are the claims of the haters justified? Man, it's annoying to see some of my fellow countrymen (I'm Filipino) discrediting the win. Lastly, Where do you put Manny now? Is he the best fighter of the decade? Man I love to hear you reply and I'm happy to say PacMan is a legit threat to the welterweight division. Thanks! P.S. Shane Mosley is the logical choice over Mayweather for Manny should Shane get past Berto for the lineal title. Mayweather's record above lightweight is less than stellar. -Bertz Bertz, Cotto did nothing wrong as far as his tactics go. He was using all of his advantages. He was using his jab from the outside, using his edge in strength on the inside, and digging left hooks to the body with success. It just was not enough. Cotto fought the best fight he possibly could have, came in great shape, and gave himself the best chance to win. He was simply bested by a superior fighter in Manny Pacquiao. No excuses; it was a great win for Manny. Cotto did find some success. Miguel was dominating round 4, landing big power shots and aggressively advancing on the smaller fighter. But as many opponents have found out in the past, if you advance on Manny he is going to make you pay. Pacquiao landed a huge shot, dropping Cotto for the second time in the fight, and turning a 10-9 round for Cotto into a 10-8 round for Pacquiao. Manny's punches were too fast, accurate, and powerful for Miguel to defend against. To answer your other questions, yes Manny Pacquiao is the best fighter of this decade. He has broken the top 30 all time pound for pound I can say without hesitation. He could possibly be ranked higher but I would have to think about it for a while. Manny The Great Manny Pacquiao displayed one of his most dominant performances against Cotto and showed the world that his speed and power are still potent at welterweight. And now, he achieved his 7th championship in his 7th division. I did email to you before he fought De La Hoya that he will be competitive versus Cotto, Margarito, Mosley & Mayweather. Many experts at that time gave him slim to zero chance in winning against these welterweight boxers. Well, the whole RSR team chose Pacquiao to win this time. In your latest assessment, does Manny Pacquiao now have 50-50 chance in winning against Floyd Mayweather? I hope Mayweather will accept the challenge of Master Roach. More power to your excellent mailbag. -Jay Ari Yin Jay, Manny coming up to the welterweight division and cleaning house the way he has was unexpected. His wins over De La Hoya, Hatton, and Cotto are the reasons why boxing pundits are starting to talk about Pacquiao as an elite all time great. The amount of weight classes that Pacquiao has spanned during his championship career is unparalleled. I am a boxing writer who does not like to assume or forecast a boxer's greatest. For me, a boxer has to prove his greatness in the ring. Pacquiao has done that with his unbelievable trek to welterweight. And yes, the entire RSR team picked Pacquiao to win, which is a testament to Pacquiao's previous track record and suggests that Manny had already proven himself to the point where his legacy is secure. As for Pacquiao vs. Mayweather, I will say that the hard jabs that Cotto was able to land against Pacquiao, even later in the fight when the bout was pretty much over, concern me. If a tired, defeated Cotto can land with that jab I wonder what Mayweather's faster, more educated jab would do. I will speak more to this later in the mailbag. Pacquiao's Chin This was one of those very rare (or only?) occasion that all the RSR writers got their predictions right. But anyway, I saw the Pacquiao vs. Cotto fight and what really impressed me most was Manny's chin. While he showed speed and punching power, it was really expected because he already showed a lot of those attributes in his last few fights but people tend to downplay them and make excuses. But his chin really stood out this time. He took all the power shots from a supposed power puncher and not once did I see him get wobbled and he was hit by quite a few solid looking shots including the dreaded left hook. But what got me confused was that on several occasions, Pacman just stood in front of Cotto and just covered his head and left Cotto to work his body. Was he just toying with Cotto by copying Muhammed Ali's rope a dope? Was he that confident that once he tasted the power of Cotto that he knew Cotto can't hurt him? I wonder what sort of excuses the jealous critics can think of now after the mugging he gave Cotto, a supposed bigger, stronger, younger fighter? -Vinjo Vinjo, This was not the only time that the RSR writers were unanimously correct. However you are correct that the RSR writers are very rarely unanimous because we are opinionated and take chances with our fight picks. Good call regarding Pacquiao's terrific chin. Cotto hit him with solid power punches, to both the chin and the body, and Manny never looked even close to being hurt. That is very impressive considering Cotto's punching prowess. Once Pacquiao knew that he could withstand whatever Cotto had to offer, perhaps he did intentionally employ the rope-a-drop to try and get Miguel to punch himself out. Cotto had known stamina issues so I could see Freddie Roach adding that strategy to Pacquiao's repertoire for this fight. Pacquiao's ability to take punishment at the higher weight classes defies logic. I think that from now on we need to start considering Pacquiao as a full size welterweight because he does not look or act like the smaller man anymore. Manny Pacquiao vs. Floyd Mayweather Hi Brian, Hope your doing good. I'm sure you enjoyed the bout between Cotto and Pacquiao. We are very happy here in Philippines that our man came out victorious. I would like again to ask your opinion regarding Floyd “Money” Mayweather vs. Pacman, granted it materializes. With Pacquiao's beating of Cotto, how will you now assess Pacquiao's chances of winning against Floyd? I still go for Pacquiao for this fight. Thanks, -Bmoy Bmoy, Pacquiao has already disproved old boxing logic that a good big man beats a good small man. He will have to disprove another adage to defeat Mayweather; that adage being a good boxer beats a good slugger. I know I am going to upset the Philippines with this, but I am predicting a Floyd Mayweather win against Manny Pacquiao. There are three things I look to in order to come to my conclusion. First, as I mentioned above, Cotto was able to hit Pacquiao with the jab pretty effectively. Mayweather has a better, faster jab than Cotto so Floyd's jab is going to be a deadly, important weapon against Manny. I suspect that Floyd will be able to land the jab early, often, and almost at will. Second, as great as Pacquiao's last three wins are, and they proved that Manny can handle bigger men, those fights did not prove that Pacquiao can handle every style of big men. De La Hoya, Hatton, and Cotto all came out aggressive, trying to impose their will on Pacquiao. There were there to be hit. They underestimated Pacquiao's size and strength. Manny showed that he can stand a slug with full size welterweights. That is a nice ability to have but it is useless against Mayweather because Pacquiao will be chasing, not slugging, against Floyd. Styles make fights and Mayweather is the polar opposite to Miguel Cotto. Third, Pacquiao's sole loss in this decade was against Erik Morales, who boxed brilliantly against Pacquiao. Morales jabbed, moved, and put on a boxing clinic to win the fight. The way to beat Pacquiao is definitely not trying to slug with him. The way to beat him is to box him from the outside and out-skill him. Not many people have the ability to do this but if anyone does it is Floyd Mayweather, the best pure boxer of his generation. Yes, Pacquiao has improved dramatically since his loss to Morales, however, Mayweather is a dramatically better boxer than Morales. Floyd might stink the place out and make for a boring fight, but I truly believe that if he fights very cautious, only takes limited risks, uses his jab well, and is able to defend or avoid Manny's big punches, then I see Mayweather winning a close decision. I don't think that Mayweather will be able to hurt Pacquiao at all, or vice versa. This one goes the distance to the disappointment of the fans. Pacquiao and Marquez Switch Excellent performance by Pacquiao and he really deserves to be in the all time great list. By the way since Juan Manuel Marquez is the only one that can almost equal Pacquiao all their fights I'm wondering what would have happened is Marquez won the 2nd fight and he is given the same fights as Pacquiao had and vice versa. Below is the said list: Marquez vs. Miguel Cotto Marquez vs. Ricky Hatton Marquez vs. Oscar De La Hoya Marquez vs. David Diaz Pacquiao vs. Floyd Mayweather Pacquiao vs. Juan Diaz Pacquiao vs. Joel Casamayor Can you picture out what would have happened? Can Marquez overcome Pacquiao's opposition even if he is the much stationary of the two. Can Pacquiao overcome Marquez's recent opposition even though he is the more aggressive of the two? -Maginoo "Pero" Bastos Pero, Pacquiao has an uncanny ability to get better as he moves up in weight. He also has the ability to get better as a fight goes on whereas most get tired, but that is beside the point. Pacquiao is a freak of nature. Marquez, although he gave Pacquiao tons of trouble at lower weight classes, does not share that unique ability to move up in weight without suffering consequences. Though they were equals at featherweight, Pacquiao is a much better welterweight. Keep that in mind when I predict these fights: Marquez vs. Miguel Cotto – Cotto would be too strong for Marquez and surely would KO him. Marquez vs. Ricky Hatton – Interesting fight where I give the slight edge to Hatton although Marquez could surprise with his great counter punching ability against an offensive fighter. Marquez vs. Oscar De La Hoya – I give the edge here to De La Hoya as well by a fairly wide margin because of his large size advantage. Marquez vs. David Diaz – I don't think much of Diaz, never did so I pick Marquez by wide decision. Pacquiao vs. Floyd Mayweather – I pick Mayweather by close decision as I explain in a question above. Mayweather was on point that night against Marquez. Pacquiao vs. Juan Diaz – Diaz was shown to be a bit overrated in his recent fights. I like Pacquiao by a highlight reel KO. Pacquiao vs. Joel Casamayor – Casamayor would be too old to keep up with Manny. Manny finds a way to win by knockout against the wily veteran. Questions Answered Hi Brian, Good thing you didn’t switch sides in your prediction like you said you might...hehe. Hope you had a very good night of boxing just as I and everyone else in the Philippines. What excites me most before the fight are the variables, the things that boxing experts/purists/analyst(however they’re called) cant confidently predict. The two biggest variables I think that were answered big time were: 1) How will Pac react to Cotto’s punches? – Man! He looked like he’s asking for more. Another thing, looks to me that he’s intentionally getting to the ropes to test Cotto’s body punches. 2) Can Pac hurt Cotto? – He just dropped him twice. Not bad for a former flyweight. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think it was an easy fight for Pac. Pac had to drain some blood in his right ear. I heard that Roach thought the Cotto that showed up is better than they expected. Are the PPV numbers in? How was it compared to UFC105? Compared to Mayweather-Marquez? Please re-assess and talk about Pacquiao vs. Mayweather's revenue split and what would be fair? Morepower. -Pacboy Pacboy, I said in several analysis of this fight that I thought both Cotto and Pacquiao were going to land their best shots on each others chins and that the reaction to those punches would determine the outcome of the fight. Pacquiao walked through Cotto's punches and Cotto went down. I did not expect that much of a difference in effect although I thought Pacquiao might handle it a bit better. Great performance by Manny, I can't say it enough. The PPV numbers are not in yet and probably won't be announced for a couple weeks. It takes a while to tally up all of the numbers. The negotiations for Mayweather vs. Pacquiao should be easy assuming neither are unreasonable. If Pacquiao vs. Cotto made more money then Pacquiao should get the bigger split. If Mayweather vs. Marquez made more money then Mayweather should get the bigger split. If they did roughly the same then go 50/50. I know Pacquiao and his fans are eagerly awaiting the PPV buy numbers, as I am. I am pretty confident that Pacquiao vs. Cotto did at least 800,000 buys and would be a little bit surprised if it did less than 1 million. Mayweather vs. Marquez did about 1 million. Jaunma Lopez Overrated? Do you think Juan Manuel Lopez is overrated? He's only beaten one decent fighter in Daniel Ponce de Leon, and by decent i mean not so good but just slightly above average. Penalosa was old and small so I didn't count that. Yet people seem to be too high on Juanma. on the other hand, these same people seem to downplay Nonito Donaire's victory over Vic Darchinyan and is now calling him a 1 trick pony because he also only beat 1 named fighter. Darchinyan is way more skilled and a far more better fighter than Ponce de Leon could ever be. Plus Donaire isn't fighting smaller men like what Juanma is doing. Donaire beat Concepcion who is at least two weight divisions heavier than him. -Vinjo Vinjo, I don't think Juanma Lopez is overrated at all. I am, however, officially on the Juanma bandwagon and a card carrying member of his fan club (not really, but I have mad respect for his talent). Lopez is a terrific boxer with great fundamentals, good speed, footwork, and incredible punching power. What's not to like? You downplay Daniel Ponce de Leon but he was, at the time, a guy that nobody wanted to fight. He was extremely big, strong, and powerful in the super bantamweight division with a free swinging mentality. I saw him as the Antonio Margarito of the lower weight classes. Lopez knocked him out so impressively I could not help but be enthralled. With that said, Donaire's win over Vic Darchinyan was just as impressive over a higher rated opponent. Any pound for pound list, including mine, has Donaire ranked far, far above Juanma Lopez. Both men need to step up their level of opposition because aside from one or two quality wins they don't have much. Based on their current resume though, Nonito gets the clear edge and if anyone disputes that they are wrong. I have never seen anyone say otherwise so I have no idea who you are referring to when you say that Lopez is overrated. He may be overrated by a select few, but by most he and Donaire are rated right where they should be. Based on opinion and not fact, Donaire is rated above Lopez for now but I think Juanma has the better upside. What Counts Towards PPV Buys Sir Brian, I don't want join in the Pacman-Cotto hype considering that by the time this blog will be posted, the said fight will already be a part of history, be it a large one or the opposite. My question, however, relates to the fight - PPV numbers. Can you please explain to us how the PPV numbers are obtained? Are tickets bought by watching on theaters considered a PPV buy or simply those PPV buys bought directly from HBO are considered? If the previous is true, then are the theaters outside the US also considered? I hope you can enlighten us on this one on your next blog. Thanks and GOD bless! -Reagan Loberternos Reagan, PPV buys are the number of people in the US who purchased the fight on their home television. HBO PPV teams with the cable television and satellite television companies to sell the fight. Closed circuit, movie theater, ticket sales and other avenues for fight revenue are completely separate. Theaters and PPV sales outside of the US are not considered either. Pavlik Running Scared Dr. Pugilist Flat out - how does a guy go from death's door to a title defense in a matter days? Kelly Pavlik said he was unfit to go through with a fight against Paul Williams yet he set to fight Miguel Espino next month?!? Is it me or has Kelly Pavlik pulled-out more than a high schooler in the back seat of a limo on grad night? So, by my count, Kelly has avoided Abraham, pulled-out on Mora and gone to great lengths to avoid Paul Williams - multiple times. Team Pavlik is now using semantics to defend this latest move. I believe Pavlik has lost ALL of the momentum from his title win over two years ago. Pavlik will NEVER face Williams - who incidentally, would stop him if they ever fought. Pavlik likes smaller, squared-up foes that he can hit, despite the return fire he seems unable to avoid...hence his latest choice...a non-puncher in Pino. What is your take on the matter? -Rubber Warrior Rubber Warrior, Funny email. I like it. I'm not as critical as you are but there is no hiding the fact that Kelly Pavlik needs to step up his quality of opposition. His last win over a highly regarded opponent was February 2008 against Jermain Taylor. For someone who is supposedly a champion and an elite boxer in the sport, that is way too long to go. Getting his butt kicked by Bernard Hopkins completely killed his momentum, you are right about that. I think Pavlik would do okay against Williams. I certainly don't think that Kelly would get knocked out. Williams is not a huge puncher, although he has good power, and I question how much he will be able to rise in weight while still maintaining his current strength and power. Pavlik would have the size advantage here. If Williams were to win, which I'd say the odds are 50/50, it would be boxing using his length and jab. If the Williams vs. Pavlik fight will never happen, I would like to see Pavlik try to unify the middleweight belts, especially to go after Felix Sturm. Other than Sturm, Kelly is going to have to look to other divisions in order to find quality opposition. Pacquiao Follower Asks Are you a Pacquiao believer? -Krimson Krimson, Do I believe he exists? Yes I do. Did I pick him to win the fight against Cotto? Yes. There are, however, fighters out there who I think can beat him. Use of Energy Drinks Hi Brian, It's me again. Thanks for your very interesting answers to my previous emails. Your very sensible and satisfying thoughts made me love reading them all over again. I have a few more queries to satisfy my curiosity: 1. Other than the first Aaron Pryor vs. Alexis Arguello match which was controversial, I never noticed boxers drinking energy drinks (of course the ones without illegal substances) or even plain thirst quenchers such as Gatorade during fights. Is water the only drink allowed? 2. Where's Riddick Bowe and Herbie Hide now? They were two talented boxers in the 90's and they could have gone far in their career. I really was a big fan of them alongside Evander Holyfield. Thanks again Brian. -Morse Morse, You are very welcome for the responses. I appreciate your emails, you have good questions. 1. Rule #44 in the Association of Boxing Commissions rules and guidelines states: "Unless local Commission rules state otherwise, boxers may only consume pure water during the bout. The use of banned substances is grounds for DISQUALIFICATION and administrative disciplinary action." Therefore, no, boxers are not allowed to drink Gatorade or any other type of drink other than water. And by the way, energy drinks would be the worst possible thing you would want to drink for a fight. Those things are nothing but high doses of sugar and caffeine. The sugar would make you jittery and cause you to lose your focus. The caffeine would darn near give you a heart attack with the extreme body activity in a boxing match. Not to mention that the energy drink would be counter productive in replenishing fluids. Drinking that battery acid flavored syrup only makes you more thirsty. 2. Herbie Hide and Riddick Bowe are both still active, believe it or not. Hide is busy fighting journeymen in Germany. Bowe fought December of last year against a journeyman but last I heard he still wanted to continue fighting. Neither have been relevant contenders since the mid 1990's. In Hide's case his decline was due, in part, to his fighting style and, in part, due to him not taking his career seriously. Herbie fought balls out, gunning for the knockout every time. That made him exciting to watch but it also takes a toll on your body. Aggressive fighters tend to burn out quick. He was also a knucklehead, always getting in trouble with the law, focused more on things outside of the ring instead of seriously training. Bowe was brilliant in his prime but shortly after the Andrew Golota fights he went completely crazy. I am talking kidnap your kids type crazy. Bowe also did not train seriously starting early on in his career. He came in very overweight in his rematch against Evander Holyfield. You can't be a great champion, or even a competent contender, if you don't have your mental faculties together. Kessler vs. Ward in Oakland Brian, Who do you like in the Super Six fight this weekend? European fighters are 2-0 so far against the USA. Do you think that trend will continue with Ward vs. Kessler? This is also the first time that the USA fighter has hometown advantage so that might be a factor. -Darren Darren, With Mikkel Kessler vs. Andre Ward you have two very skilled, talented boxers going head to head but one is a seasoned veteran with lots of championship experience and the other is pretty green. Ward has an Olympic gold medal but that far eclipses any of his accomplishments he has as a pro. My prediction is a Kessler win by either decision or late round stoppage. Ward will probably have his moments though because of his amazing speed, but he is not as fundamentally sound as Mikkel. I am very curious though at the result to see if Ward has what it takes. Entering him into this great tournament will be a trial by fire. I hope everyone enjoys the fight and has a good week. See you next time! Click here to view a list of other articles written by Brian Wilbur. Recent PhilBoxing.com In-House articles: |
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